It's almost here: The Kaldheim Championship, featuring all members of the Magic Pro League and the Magic Rivals League as well as top players from qualifying events held on MTG Arena and Magic Online, begins Friday March 26 at 9 a.m. PDT broadcasting live at twitch.tv/magic.
This weekend here are 211 competitors battling in both Standard and Historic formats. Let's see what they all brought to battle.
Standard Metagame Breakdown
Friday and Saturday feature a combined seven rounds of (best-of-three) Standard. In addition, Sunday's Top 8 double-elimination playoff is exclusively Standard. The metagame breaks downs as follows.
The macro-archetype "Naya Adventures" is comprised of 8 Naya Tokens variants (with
Deck Archetype | Number of Players | Percentage of Field |
---|---|---|
Sultai Ultimatum | 47 | 22.3% |
Temur Adventures | 37 | 17.5% |
Mono-Red Aggro | 35 | 16.6% |
Cycling | 22 | 10.4% |
Dimir Rogues | 17 | 8.1% |
Mono-White Aggro | 15 | 7.1% |
Naya Tokens | 8 | 3.8% |
Gruul Adventures | 7 | 3.3% |
Four-Color Doom Foretold | 5 | 2.4% |
Gruul Food | 4 | 1.9% |
Naya Fury | 3 | 1.4% |
Esper Doom Foretold | 2 | 0.9% |
Bant Adventures | 2 | 0.9% |
Sultai Control | 2 | 0.9% |
Rakdos Sacrifice | 1 | 0.5% |
Jeskai Mutate | 1 | 0.5% |
Selesnya Adventures | 1 | 0.5% |
Four-Color Gyruda | 1 | 0.5% |
Abzan Midrange | 1 | 0.5% |
At the February Kaldheim League Weekend, the metagame was still sorting itself out, with aggressive decks in various colors and flavors vying for the top spot. Now, at the Kaldheim Championship, Mono-Red Aggro, Cycling, Mono-White Aggro, and Naya Adventure variants are still hanging on, but Sultai Ultimatum and Temur Adventures have claimed the top spots.
The builds of all these decks are fairly well-established—they were covered in detail by broadcast expert Mani Davoudi—and there were no major surprises. Among Temur Adventures players, 20 registered
Accordingly, there are few archetypes that are particularly well-positioned in this field. If I had to make a pick, then based on win rate data obtained from MTG Melee earlier this month I'd say that Cycling is a good choice: I believe it's favored against Sultai Ultimatum, even against Temur Adventures and Mono-Red Aggro, and decent against the rest of the field. But the margins in these matchups, if I'm even evaluating them correctly, are slim at best. Especially when you're facing off against the best players in the world.
Ultimately, I expect that most Standard matches will be decided not by deck choice but by playing skill, sideboard mastery, and matchup experience. This should make the Top 8 Standard matches exciting to watch.
The Most-Played Nonland Cards in Standard
Mystical Dispute
Heartless Act
Lovestruck Beast
Edgewall Innkeeper
Alrund's Epiphany
Omen of the Sea
Binding the Old Gods
Embercleave
More interesting is that
The Spiciest Standard Deck Choices
The top of the Standard metagame chart contains few surprises, and the most popular decks were already explained in detail by broadcast expert Mani Davoudi. However, there were several unexpected rogue choices. One example is Gruul Food, which is basically what you get when you start with Mono-Green Food and then splash for
Charming Prince
Wolfwillow Haven
It's been a while since I saw
Vadrok, Apex of Thunder
Open the Omenpaths
One player registered Jeskai Mutate. With the perfect draw involving
Felidar Retreat
Lotus Cobra
Finally, two players registered Bant Adventures. It's similar to Naya Tokens, but even more extreme. After all, drawing a few extra cards with
Historic Metagame Breakdown
Friday and Saturday each feature four rounds of (best-of-three) Historic. The metagame breaks downs as follows.
The macro-archetype "Jund Sacrifice" is comprised of 56 Jund Food variants with
Deck Archetype | Number of Players | Percentage of Field |
---|---|---|
Jund Food | 56 | 26.5% |
Orzhov Auras | 31 | 14.7% |
Azorius Control | 18 | 8.5% |
Gruul Aggro | 11 | 5.2% |
Jund Company | 10 | 4.7% |
Sultai Ultimatum | 8 | 3.8% |
Goblins | 8 | 3.8% |
Abzan Midrange | 8 | 3.8% |
Bant Midrange | 8 | 3.8% |
Elves | 6 | 2.8% |
Boros Cycling | 5 | 2.4% |
Mono-Red Burn | 5 | 2.4% |
Bant Angels | 3 | 1.4% |
Five-Color Niv-Mizzet | 3 | 1.4% |
Selesnya Company | 2 | 0.9% |
Neostorm | 2 | 0.9% |
Mono-Black Control | 2 | 0.9% |
Selesnya Aggro | 2 | 0.9% |
Four-color Midrange | 2 | 0.9% |
Temur Adventures | 2 | 0.9% |
Paradox Engine | 2 | 0.9% |
Selesnya Midrange | 2 | 0.9% |
Nine Lives | 1 | 0.5% |
Rakdos Midrange | 1 | 0.5% |
Bant Spirits | 1 | 0.5% |
Rakdos Sacrifice | 1 | 0.5% |
Dimir Gift | 1 | 0.5% |
Mono-Blue Tempo | 1 | 0.5% |
Orzhov Gift | 1 | 0.5% |
Selesnya Angels | 1 | 0.5% |
Dimir Control | 1 | 0.5% |
Grixis Arcanist | 1 | 0.5% |
Kethis Combo | 1 | 0.5% |
Boros Burn | 1 | 0.5% |
Enigmatic Incarnation | 1 | 0.5% |
Golgari Midrange | 1 | 0.5% |
Rakdos Arcanist | 1 | 0.5% |
At the January Kaldheim League Weekend, Sultai Midrange was dominant with Jund Sacrifice not far behind. Since then, Historic was shaken up by the release of Kaldheim, the addition of Historic Anthology IV, and the banning of Uro, Titan of Nature's Wrath.
The set releases gave rise to new strategies, such as Elves and Angels, but the ban of Uro was arguably even more impactful. It effectively eliminated Sultai Midrange as a competitively viable archetype and paved the way for Jund Sacrifice, previously the second most-popular archetype, to dominate the format.
To many Kaldheim Championship competitors, this won't come as a surprise. While it's hard to predict the exact percentage of field, most competitors surely would have expected Jund Sacrifice to be the most-played archetype. But this did influence card choices. For players who wanted to run
Looking further, Orzhov Auras as the second most-played deck comes as a surprise to me. Sure,
Azorius Control as the third most-played deck is in line with my expectation, but I also have doubts regarding its matchup against Jund Sacrifice. With recurring threats and green card advantage spells, Jund players rarely run out of steam and can keep up pressure in the face of sweepers and countermagic.
Instead, I believe that players with
Combo decks, including ramp-heavy 60-card Sultai Ultimatum variants, can also attack Jund Sacrifice from an effective angle, so they seem well-positioned.
In summary, I believe that many of the decks that rose from the ashes of Sultai Midrange are poised to do well. There are few hyper-aggro decks around to keep them in check, and as long as they were constructed with Jund Sacrifice in mind, they'll be happy to face the most popular deck in the field.
The Most-Played Nonland Cards in Historic
Binding the Old Gods
Mayhem Devil
Witch's Oven
The most-played nonland card across Historic main decks and sideboards is
The next most-played cards in the list are not as surprising: It's
Baffling End
Noxious Grasp
Grafdigger's Cage
Yasharn, Implacable Earth
Right below the Jund Food components, we find several efficient two-mana removal spells:
Next, we find answers that can shut down entire strategies:
After focusing on the most-played spells overall, let's now zoom into the additions from the last two sets specifically.
Behold the Multiverse
Doomskar
Frost Bite
Jaspera Sentinel
Alrund's Epiphany
Righteous Valkyrie
Kaldheim had a major impact on Historic. Besides
Additionally, there were between 15 and 25 copies of the following Kaldheim cards across Historic decks:
Frost Bite , a popular addition to the sideboard of Goblins.Jaspera Sentinel andElvish Warmaster , which turned Elves into a real archetype.Reidane, God of the Worthy , a worthy addition to white aggro decks.Alrund's Epiphany , an essential part of manyEmergent Ultimatum piles.Righteous Valkyrie andYouthful Valkyrie , which gave Angels the critical tribal mass.
Flameblade Adept
Death's Shadow
Coldsteel Heart
Historic Anthology IV has not had a major impact on the Historic decks at the Kaldheim Championship. The most-played Historic Anthology 4 card is
The Spiciest Historic Deck Choices
All Historic decklists will be published on the Kaldheim Championship event page at the beginning of Round 1 on Friday, March 26. Many of the spicy new Historic decks, including Elves, Angels, and
Golos, Tireless Pilgrim
Cabal Stronghold
Two players registered Mono-Black Control.
Deafening Clarion
Coldsteel Heart
One of my favorite homes for
Flameblade Adept
Zenith Flare
I like Cycling in Standard, but in Historic you need something extra to compete.
Conclusion
Mani Davoudi's wish was for neither format to have any singular archetype be more than 20% of the field. That wish did not come true, but there's still a fair amount of diversity and a good amount of spice. Both formats get you to Top 8, and on Sunday it's all Standard. I can't wait to see which decks will come out on top.
Don't miss the live broadcast, March 26–28 beginning at 9 a.m. PT each day at twitch.tv/magic!