Hello, and welcome back to Metagame Mentor, your weekly guide to the top decks and latest developments on the path to the Pro Tour. Earlier this week, various formats were shaken up by the banned and restricted announcement, leading to some massive metagame shifts. In today's article, I'll offer my first thoughts on where Modern and Pioneer might go after the bans.

Additionally, the post-rotation Standard metagame has been steadily evolving as well, so I'll also analyze the latest Standard tournament results. With so many formats to cover, let's dive in!

The Post-Ban Modern Environment

On August 26, Nadu, Winged Wisdom and Grief were banned in Modern. You can read the full explanation in the announcement. When figuring out where the metagame might go after such a shake-up, I like to ask myself four questions: What stays on top, what becomes better, what becomes worse, and what has an outside shot? While I can't predict the future with certainty, I can provide my own initial ideas from the perspective of a Pro Tour veteran who covers competitive Magic metagames on a weekly basis.

What stays on top? Guide of Souls and Amped Raptor will likely remain key players. In my Modern snapshot from right before the ban, Boros Energy and Mardu Energy were 12.2% and 11.0% of the winner's metagame respectively. Leveraging a fast clock with relevant interaction, these were the second and third most-played decks behind Bant Nadu, and none of their cards were banned. Mardu Energy's black spells provide a small edge against Boros Energy, so I would peg Mardu Energy as the initial deck to beat.

What becomes better? Based on data from tournaments on Melee, Jeskai decks with sweepers like Wrath of the Skies and Supreme Verdict had a favorable matchup against Boros and Mardu Energy. So, if the popularity of Boros and Mardu Energy skyrockets, then Jeskai Control, Jeskai Dress Down, and Jeskai Wizards would be well-positioned. Several other decks also improve after the bans. Eldrazi Tron, Gruul Eldrazi, and Dimir Murktide struggled against Bant Nadu, but they are strong against the Jeskai decks. Gruul Eldrazi stands out because of its weakness to Bant Nadu, but it has a fine matchup against Boros and Mardu Energy. Depending on how the new metagame shakes out, Gruul Eldrazi could become a significant force.

What becomes worse? Decks with Grief lose a valuable piece of interaction, so Goryo's Vengeance, Living End, and Necrodominance decks get worse. However, I expect that they can be rebuilt with alternative disruption. For Necrodominance decks in particular, I had already mentioned last week that the best-performing ones had cut Malakir Rebirth, recognizing that returning Grief was not essential to their strategy. Necrodominance players might add a combination of alternative discard spells, removal spells, and/or early-game creatures. With a splash for Culling Ritual, Hidetsugu Consumes All, or Suncleanser, they should also fare well against Boros and Mardu Energy. In a similar fashion, Esper Goryo's could replace Grief with Thoughtseize and Leyline Binding for additional disruption. Overall, Grief decks lost a core piece, but they are not necessarily dead.

What has an outside shot? Ruby Storm and various other combo decks may have an opportunity after the ban. They would fill the combo void left by Bant Nadu, especially when Grief is no longer available to opponents as free disruption. Ruby Storm in particular was already 6.8% of the winner's metagame right before the ban, and its potential for winning the game on turn two or three should not be underestimated. Boros and Mardu Energy can surely defeat it with Damping Sphere, Drannith Magistrate, or Deafening Silence, but if they don't dedicate the sideboard slots, then Ruby Storm could take the metagame by storm.

The first two Magic Online tournaments after the ban—the Modern Challenge 32 and the Modern Challenge 64—bear out these expected developments. The top tier of the early winner's metagame featured 16% Mardu Energy, 16% Gruul Eldrazi, 13% Boros Energy, 7% Amulet Titan, 7% Jeskai Control, 7% Esper Goryo's, and 6% Eldrazi Tron.

2 Aether Hub 4 Ajani, Nacatl Pariah 4 Amped Raptor 1 Arena of Glory 4 Arid Mesa 1 Blood Crypt 2 Bloodstained Mire 2 Chthonian Nightmare 1 Elegant Parlor 2 Fatal Push 3 Galvanic Discharge 3 Goblin Bombardment 1 Godless Shrine 4 Guide of Souls 4 Marsh Flats 1 Mountain 4 Ocelot Pride 4 Orcish Bowmasters 3 Phlage, Titan of Fire's Fury 1 Plains 3 Sacred Foundry 1 Shadowy Backstreet 2 Static Prison 3 Thoughtseize 2 Damping Sphere 1 Deafening Silence 2 End the Festivities 1 Fulminator Mage 1 Jegantha, the Wellspring 2 Nihil Spellbomb 1 Rakdos Charm 3 Suncleanser 2 Wear // Tear

As many expected, Boros Energy and Mardu Energy dominated the first two Modern Challenges, with Mardu being more prominent than Boros. Fueled by Modern Horizons 3, the pivotal energy package is comprised of Guide of Souls, Galvanic Discharge, and Amped Raptor, while the feline firepower of Ocelot Pride and Ajani, Nacatl Pariah puts considerable pressure onto the opponent. Meanwhile, Phlage, Titan of Fire's Fury is formidable in long games.

Mardu Energy has the same core as Boros Energy, but trades Blood Moon for higher card quality. Notably, Orcish Bowmasters gives an edge against Ocelot Pride or The One Ring, while Thoughtseize provides an answer to combo strategies. In addition, black unlocks Fatal Push, which is the ideal answer against Suncleanser—one of the most potent sideboard card in the format. That said, I do wonder if it might be possible to make room for a few copies of Fable of the Mirror-Breaker or The One Ring. These card advantage engines have excelled in Boros Energy, and they might also fit into Mardu.

Now that Nadu is gone, there is no longer a need for Harsh Mentor in the sideboard. Matiasarg indeed cut them in the above-shown list, which they piloted to a 7th-place finish at the Modern Challenge 64. Their decision to include End the Festivities and Rakdos Charm, however, is a little bit more offbeat. Instead of these sideboard cards, I would consider Obsidian Charmaw to handle the rise of the Eldrazi decks. Alternatively, Bonecrusher Giant or Fear, Fire, Foes! could sidestep the damage prevention effect of The One Ring, which remains the most-played card in Modern.

4 All Is Dust 4 Ancient Stirrings 1 Boseiju, Who Endures 1 Boseiju, Who Shelters All 1 Cavern of Souls 4 Devourer of Destiny 4 Eldrazi Temple 3 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn 1 Forest 1 Gemstone Caverns 4 Grove of the Burnwillows 4 Karplusan Forest 1 Kessig Wolf Run 4 Kozilek's Command 4 Sowing Mycospawn 4 Talisman of Impulse 4 The One Ring 4 Through the Breach 4 Ugin's Labyrinth 3 Ulamog, the Defiler 4 Kozilek's Return 3 Thought-Knot Seer 4 Trinisphere 4 World Breaker

Gruul Eldrazi, based on the first two Magic Online tournaments, is the other early frontrunner in post-ban Modern. For example, Nictophobia finished 2nd in the Modern Challenge 64 with the list shown above. It leverages Eldrazi Temple and Ugin's Labyrinth as two-mana lands that ramp into massive threats, and the knockout punch is using Through the Breach to sneak in Emrakul, the Aeons Torn. In the sideboard, now that Nadu is out of the picture, there is no need for Run Afoul. Instead, the powerful package of Kozilek's Return and World Breaker provides strategic flexibility and the ability to tweak threats and answers for any matchup.

Modern tournaments will be more enjoyable without the looming shadow of Nadu, Winged Widom, and I'm excited to see how the format will develop in the current round of Regional Championship Qualifiers. Through November 3, these RCQs qualify for a Modern Regional Championship in early 2025, which ultimately leads into the second Pro Tour of 2025. Next week, I'll be back with a more in-depth analysis of the first weekend of Modern tournaments after the ban, and I look forward to provide useful insights for RCQ competitors.

The Post-Ban Pioneer Environment

On August 26, Amalia Benavides Aguirre and Sorin, Imperious Bloodlord were banned in Pioneer. To analyze what to expect from the post-ban metagame, let's go over the same four questions as for Modern.

What stays on top? Izzet Phoenix is poised to dominate. In my last metagame snapshots from July, August, and earlier this year, there were generally three major archetypes on top of Pioneer: Rakdos Vampires, Amalia Combo, and Izzet Phoenix. While the first two lost their key cards, the third is left untouched. As such, Izzet Phoenix is the obvious deck to beat in Pioneer after the ban.

What becomes better? Aggressive or proactive decks with little-to-no interaction against a turn three Vein Ripper or 20/20 Amalia Benavides Aguirre will improve substantially. Examples include Mono-Red Wizards, Mono-White Humans, Izzet Ensoul, Boros Convoke, Waste Not, Lotus Field Combo, and Mono-Green Devotion. Based on 2024 data from tournaments on Melee, these decks tended to struggle against Rakdos Vampires and Amalia Combo, but they all had a positive matchup against Izzet Phoenix. Now will be their time to shine.

What becomes worse? Rakdos Vampires and Amalia Combo have been effectively removed from competitive Pioneer, which will weaken Niv to Light. Niv to Light was one of the few decks that could clinch a positive matchup against Rakdos Vampires and Amalia Combo, but without these decks to prey upon, the archetype gets much worse.

What has an outside shot? Sorin, Imperious Bloodlord may have gotten banned, but Fatal Push, Thoughtseize, Bloodtithe Harvester, and Fable of the Mirror-Breaker remain legal. The core of Rakdos Midrange has remained powerful in Pioneer throughout most of the format's history, and it will likely play an important role going forward. Perhaps it will be a straight-up midrange deck or one with combo finish, such as Tree of Perdition plus Agatha's Soul Cauldron. But we surely haven't seen the last of Rakdos.

The first two Magic Online tournaments after the ban—the Pioneer Challenge 32 and the Pioneer Challenge 64—bear out these expected developments. For reference, the top tier of the early winner's metagame featured 16% Izzet Phoenix, 10% Atarka Red, 8% Waste Not, 8% Mono-Red Wizards, 7% Mono-White Humans, 6% Boros Convoke, and 5% Mono-Green Devotion.

4 Arclight Phoenix 4 Consider 4 Fiery Impulse 1 Galvanic Iteration 2 Hall of Storm Giants 3 Island 4 Ledger Shredder 4 Lightning Axe 4 Opt 1 Otawara, Soaring City 4 Picklock Prankster 4 Riverglide Pathway 4 Sleight of Hand 3 Spell Pierce 4 Spirebluff Canal 4 Steam Vents 1 Stormcarved Coast 1 Temporal Trespass 4 Treasure Cruise 1 Aether Gust 2 Ashiok, Dream Render 1 Brazen Borrower 2 Brotherhood's End 3 Crackling Drake 2 Mystical Dispute 1 Negate 3 Thing in the Ice

Across the published Top 32 Pioneer decklists from both Challenges, Izzet Phoenix was the most popular archetype. Ten players (16% of the winner's metagame) were exploiting Treasure Cruise while recurring Arclight Phoenix from the graveyard, and Ale_MTG took a second-place finish with the list shown above.

Their sideboard features Thing in the Ice and Brotherhood's End, both of which can help against the creature-based decks that have arisen post-ban. Now that Izzet Phoenix no longer needs to dedicate sideboard slots for Rakdos Vampires or Amalia Combo, it can target aggro decks directly. As a result, matchups are poised to change, and we'll have to see how things develop.

4 Aloe Alchemist 4 Atarka's Command 1 Audacity 4 Burning-Tree Emissary 4 Copperline Gorge 2 Cragcrown Pathway 3 Cunning Coyote 2 Den of the Bugbear 4 Heartfire Hero 4 Karplusan Forest 4 Kumano Faces Kakkazan 4 Monastery Swiftspear 4 Monstrous Rage 1 Mountain 4 Play with Fire 2 Ramunap Ruins 4 Reckless Bushwhacker 1 Sokenzan, Crucible of Defiance 4 Stomping Ground 2 End the Festivities 1 Grafdigger's Cage 1 Kari Zev's Expertise 3 Magebane Lizard 1 Pick Your Poison 2 Rampaging Ferocidon 2 Rending Volley 1 Scorching Shot 1 Shapers' Sanctuary [1bwXo1tCuIbyXFAi0LcJC4] 1 Tears of Valakut

All the deck archetypes I mentioned as the early winners (Mono-Red Wizards, Mono-White Humans, Izzet Ensoul, Boros Convoke, Waste Not, Lotus Field Combo, and Mono-Green Devotion) were quite popular across the first two Challenge events, with each reaching at least two Top 32 finishes. Atarka Red was the most successful of the bunch, with Beraldi winning the Pioneer Challenge 32.

Their Atarka Red decklist is the same as the one I covered in my Pioneer article from two weeks ago, where I highlighted the formidable power of Bloomburrow's Heartfire Hero in combination with Cunning Coyote, Aloe Alchemist, or other effects. The card choices in the decklist can surely be improved for the post-ban metagame, however. For example, sideboard cards like Pick Your Poison and Tears of Valakut become less appealing when you're not facing Vein Ripper every three rounds. Likewise, Rampaging Ferocidon becomes less valuable without Amalia Combo in the format. Regardless, Atarka Red and other aggro decks have gotten much better positioned now, adding diversity to the format.

Pioneer is now wide open, and it will be exciting to see how the format will develop as the Regional Championships approach. In two weeks from now, I will return with a more in-depth analysis of Pioneer after the ban. Looking ahead, the first Regional Championship will take place in Brazil on September 28, and the second one will take place in the United States on October 5. As Duskmourn: House of Horror prereleases start on September 20, the set will be legal throughout the entire round of RCs.

The Evolving Standard Metagame in August 2024

Standard recently went through rotation, leading to an upheaval of the format. I analyzed 384 published decklists from Magic Online Challenges held from August 9 through August 25, in addition to all decklists from the 462-player Japan Open held on August 9. Overall, the most-played nonland cards were Go for the Throat, Duress, Temporary Lockdown, Cut Down, and Deep-Cavern Bat.

To each deck, I awarded points equal to its rectified number of net wins (its number of match wins minus losses if positive and zero otherwise). Each archetype's share of total rectified net wins can then be interpreted as its share of the winner's metagame, combining popularity and performance into a single metric.

In this table, each archetype name hyperlinks to a well-performing, representative decklist. The "Other" category included Four-Color Ramp, Jund Prowess, Naya Rabbits, Golgari Forage, Orzhov Sacrifice, Orzhov Bats, Surprise Ramp, Dimir Reanimator, Four-Color Reanimator, Sultai Midrange, Mono-Red Aggro, Rakdos Cruelclaw, Boros Mice, Abzan Midrange, Abzan Control, Orzhov Tokens, Azorius Midrange, Jeskai Control, and more.

Overall, Standard looks healthy and diverse, with a variety of aggro, midrange, ramp, control, and combo strategies all holding each other in check. Decks like Domain Ramp have shown that they can remain on top, but the metagame as a whole has evolved compared to the first weekend after the Standard rotation. Dimir Midrange has risen in popularity, while Golgari and Orzhov Midrange have dropped a bit. Meanwhile, synergy-driven strategies like Rakdos Lizards and Boros Tokens have ticked up. New decks appear every week as innovative deck builders are exploring the depths of the format.

Meanwhile, many top-tier decklists are getting perfected. For example, Domain Ramp is embracing Heaped Harvest, Gruul Prowess is finding success with Manifold Mouse, and Rakdos Lizards is adopting Deep-Cavern Bat. But arguably the most important Standard developments over the past three weeks are the rise of two Classes from Bloomburrow: Innkeeper's Talent and Caretaker's Talent.

4 Innkeeper's Talent [8D9euz54zc2VQhWKC53Na] 4 Vraska, Betrayal's Sting [5n6XuliU0DRyfbbA201fOX] 4 Go for the Throat 2 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse 2 Cut Down 4 Mosswood Dreadknight 3 Liliana of the Veil 4 Deep-Cavern Bat 4 Blooming Marsh 4 Llanowar Wastes 4 Restless Cottage 2 Duress 2 Fountainport 4 Forest 6 Swamp 2 Glissa Sunslayer 3 Caustic Bronco 2 Fabled Passage 2 Duress 4 Choking Miasma 1 Liliana of the Veil 2 Gix's Command 2 Nissa, Ascended Animist 2 Tranquil Frillback 2 Tear Asunder

In the first week of post-rotation Standard, most Golgari decks were built around midrange cards like Preacher of the Schism, Gix's Command, and Hostile Investigator. Since then, the most successful Golgari decks have cut these cards in favor of a two-card combo that wins the game on the spot: Innkeeper's Talent and Vraska, Betrayal's Sting. For example, Innistrad Championship winner Yuuki Ichikawa made a deep run at the Japan Open with the decklist shown above.

If you advance Innkeeper's Talent to Level 3 and cast Vraska, Betrayal's Sting, she'll enter with twelve loyalty counters. Even if you cast her using Phyrexian mana, the doubling can be applied before the compleated tax, allowing her to enter with ten loyalty counters. This means that you can immediately use her ultimate ability. Thanks to Innkeeper's Talent, you'll give your opponent not just nine poison counters but eighteen, which is enough to win the game. This combo takes twelve mana in total and can be accomplished as early as turn five. The best part is that both Innkeeper's Talent and Vraska, Betrayal's Sting are decent stand-alone cards, so it's a formidable addition to Golgari Midrange.

4 Torch the Tower 4 Carrot Cake 3 Get Lost 3 Virtue of Loyalty 4 Urabrask's Forge 4 Caretaker's Talent 2 Temporary Lockdown 3 Battlefield Forge 2 Archangel Elspeth 4 Sunfall 2 Elegant Parlor 4 Inspiring Vantage 4 Sunken Citadel 4 Fountainport 1 Mirrex 4 Plains 1 Mountain 4 Lightning Helix 2 Demolition Field 1 Restless Bivouac 1 Temporary Lockdown 2 Destroy Evil 2 Serra Paragon 2 Beza, the Bounding Spring 2 Abrade 2 Loran of the Third Path 1 Brotherhood's End 1 Bonehoard Dracosaur 2 Rest in Peace

The other Bloomburrow Class that has made waves in Standard is Caretaker's Talent. It turns each

Carrot Cake or Urabrask's Forge trigger into an additional card, can copy a token with its second ability, and finally turns a humble Rabbit or Fish into a fierce warrior. It even lets you draw off of Sunfall, burying your opponent in value. Caretaker's Talent is a card advantage engine, token enabler, and a win condition, all on one card.

The main home for Caretaker's Talent is Boros Tokens, a deck archetype that was used by Yushi Uzuki to win the 462-player Japan Open. However, it has also led to the emergence of Mono-White Tokens, Azorius Tokens, Jeskai Tokens, Orzhov Tokens, and so on. In Standard, the velocity of change is high, and we keep seeing new decks at every turn. There will soon be more cards to explore when Duskmourn: House of Horror previews start this Saturday, August 31!

The Road to Magic World Championship 30

While the ongoing Modern RCQs are a perfect first step in your competitive Magic journey and the upcoming Pioneer RCs represent an even bigger challenge, the World Championship has always been the yearly crown jewel of organized play. As Corbin Hosler and I count down the weeks leading up to Magic World Championship 30 at MagicCon: Las Vegas in late October, each week I'm taking a look at a great deck from a past Magic World Championship.

At the 2016 World Championship, 24 competitors came to Seattle to compete across Standard, Draft, and Modern. Amongst them was Brian Braun-Duin, who had traveled all over the globe competing in Grand Prix tournaments to earn his seat. His qualification was a just reward for an entire season of hard work and consistency on the Grand Prix circuit. Once he got here, he got an early lead at the and never looked back, ultimately becoming the 2016 Magic World Champion.

2 Tamiyo, Field Researcher 1 Duskwatch Recruiter 2 Knight of the White Orchid 4 Lambholt Pacifist 4 Reflector Mage 4 Thalia's Lieutenant 3 Thalia, Heretic Cathar 3 Thraben Inspector 4 Tireless Tracker 4 Collected Company 4 Dromoka's Command 2 Canopy Vista 4 Evolving Wilds 3 Forest 4 Fortified Village 1 Island 6 Plains 3 Prairie Stream 2 Yavimaya Coast 1 Duskwatch Recruiter 1 Knight of the White Orchid 3 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar 2 Nissa, Vastwood Seer 2 Day's Undoing 2 Declaration in Stone 2 Negate 2 Tragic Arrogance

The deck used to win the 2016 Magic World Championship was Bant Humans, which was a variation on the Bant Company deck that was widely regarded as the deck to beat in Standard at the time. Both decks were hoping to curve out with a two-drop on turn two, Reflector Mage on turn three, and then Collected Company on turn four, ideally putting multiple creatures onto the battlefield. As Braun-Duin's deck was filled with 25 creatures with mana value three or less, Collected Company would provide excellent value. While you would whiff only 3.0% of the time, the deck hit two creatures 81.6% of the time.

Compared to Bant Company, Bant Humans shaved individually powerful creatures like Spell Queller and Sylvan Advocate to make room for more aggressive cards like Lambholt Pacifist and Thalia's Lieutenant. This made the deck a little faster, with a superior damage clock. By sacrificing endurance for speed, the deck got a little worse against regular Bant Company, but it became much better against anti-Bant Company decks. Those decks ended up as a large part of the metagame, so Bant Humans was a metagame gamble that paid off beautifully.

Brian Braun-Duin felt he had a really good preparation for this event, crediting Brad Nelson for nailing the deck choice, and his mentality was on point. As he said back then: "I wasn't nervous, I wasn't beating myself up over mistakes, I didn't feel intimidated playing against the best in the world. I was just playing the best I could every turn, and things went my way for the most part."

This attitude stuck with him ever since, even last weekend when he gave Nadu, Winged Wisdom a memorable sendoff with an incredible 50-minute turn on the NRG Series livestream. That turn brought back memories of a marathon game in the finals of the 2016 Magic World Championship that lasted well over an hour. Navigating complicated board states, Brian Braun-Duin bested Márcio Carvalho in that match, taking the trophy.

While the 2016 Magic World Championship gave us lasting memories, the hype for the upcoming 30th edition is increasing. The Standard format will take center stage there, and it will keep evolving with the release of Duskmourn: House of Horror in late September. Catch all the action with the best players in the world live on October 25–27, 2024!