Hello and welcome back to Metagame Mentor, your weekly guide to the top decks and latest Constructed developments on the path to the Pro Tour. Standard has been great over the past month, featuring a wide diversity of archetypes, and the format will soon be refreshed with an exhilarating array of new cards and strategies. Besides the main Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ) set, The Big Score (BIG) adds 30 more mythic rares into Standard to build and test with, resulting in one of the biggest Standard releases ever.
As a result, I'm hyped for next week's Pro Tour Thunder Junction, where the best players in the world will show off their Standard deckbuilding and gameplay skills. To give an early indication of the decks we can expect to see at the Pro Tour, today's article provides a Standard metagame snapshot right before the release of Outlaws of Thunder Junction, along with my first thoughts on promising cards from the new set release. Afterwards, I'll go back in time to highlight the winning deck from the 1998 Magic World Championship, showing how the Standard format has changed over time.
Standard Before Outlaws of Thunder Junction
Standard is a rotating 60-card format that currently allows expansion sets from Innistrad: Midnight Hunt forward. To grasp the state of the format right before the release of Outlaws of Thunder Junction, I analyzed over 1,100 successful decklists from competitive events held from March 20 through April 10. Specifically, I used all Standard tournaments on Magic Online, the Classic Qualifier at LMS Prague, Pizza Box Open, and RCQ at Cyphacon.
For each Standard decklist, I assigned an archetype label and awarded points equal to its rectified number of net wins (i.e., the deck's number of match wins minus losses if positive and zero otherwise). Each archetype's share of total rectified net wins can be interpreted as its share of the winner's metagame.
Archetype | Winner's Metagame Share |
---|---|
1. Dimir Midrange | 17.5% ↑↑ |
2. Esper Midrange | 13.3% |
3. Temur Analyst | 13.2% ↑↑ |
4. Boros Convoke | 11.9% |
5. Domain Ramp | 7.6% ↓↓ |
6. Golgari Midrange | 7.2% ↓↓ |
7. Mono-Red Aggro | 6.8% |
8. Bant Toxic | 6.0% |
9. Gruul Aggro | 3.4% |
10. Azorius Control | 2.8% ↓↓ |
11. Dimir Control | 2.3% |
12. Rakdos Midrange | 1.5% |
13. Azorius Mentor | 1.0% |
14. Four-Color Legends | 0.7% |
15. Invasion of Alara | 0.6% |
16. Dimir Card Draw | 0.6% |
17. Other | 3.6% |
In this table, each archetype name hyperlinks to a well-performing, representative decklist. The "Other" category included Sultai Reanimator, Dimir Reanimator, Esper Legends, Esper Control, Azorius Soldiers, Rakdos Aggro, Soul Cauldron Combo, Golgari Mill, and various other archetypes.
The Standard format has been through considerable changes recently, including the release of Murders at Karlov Manor and the emergence of
Overall, Standard features a healthy mix of aggro, midrange, control, ramp, and control. There are novel developments, including a Dimir Card Draw deck featuring
The eight archetypes with the highest winner's metagame share over the past month represent the decks to defeat going into Thunder Junction Standard, and they all gain new cards. To take a closer look at these eight archetypes, I've used a decklist aggregation algorithm that considers the popularity, performance, and synergy of individual card choices. This should give us a rough idea of what to expect at the upcoming Pro Tour. Along the way, I'll add my first impressions on potential additions from Thunder Junction.
1. Dimir Midrange
Dimir Midrange, at 17.5% of the winner's metagame over the past few weeks, is the most prominent Standard deck right before the release of Outlaws of Thunder Junction. The ideal start involves cheap fliers like
From Outlaws of Thunder Junction, there are numerous Constructed-worthy cards that could fit into a blue-black deck. For example,
Another exciting angle is to add the new game-winning combo of
2. Esper Midrange
Esper Midrange is not far behind Dimir Midrange in popularity. Compared to Dimir Midrange, Esper sacrifices a smooth mana base in exchange for powerful white cards. The individual card quality in the deck is amazing, as
From Outlaws of Thunder Junction, I would be excited to try
3. Temur Analyst
Temur Analyst is capable of generating an enormous amount of mana. By taking New Capenna fetch lands from your graveyard, an
Nevertheless, the strategy is somewhat vulnerable to graveyard hate, as
4. Boros Convoke
Boros Convoke brings Pioneer power to Standard tournaments. You can curve
Outlaws of Thunder Junction introduces
5. Domain Ramp
Domain Ramp uses
From Outlaws of Thunder Junction,
6. Golgari Midrange
Golgari Midrange is basically a collection of the best individual cards in black and green. Although it has some overlap with Dimir Midrange and Esper Midrange, it trades permission spells for harder-hitting creatures. In particular,
Outlaws of Thunder Junction introduces a lot of well-statted creatures. For example, I can see the potential in
7. Mono-Red Aggro
Mono-Red Aggro is one of the most perennial archetypes in the history of Standard. The deck uses haste creatures and burn spells to take the opponent down to zero life as quickly as possible, and it threatens to do so as early as turn four.
From Outlaws of Thunder Junction, I would be interested in
8. Bant Toxic
Bant Toxic combines cheap toxic creatures and proliferate spells to give the opponent 10 poison counters as quickly as possible. Green and white provides the core of the creature base, which has recently been filled out with
From Outlaws of Thunder Junction, I would be interested in adding
Most-Played Cards From MTG Arena Streamer Event
Outlaws of Thunder Junction provides not only sweet new options for existing archetypes but also adds numerous build-arounds to enable brand new decks or revitalize forgotten ones. Partly due to The Big Score bonus sheet, the new set injects a gigantic number of powerful cards into Standard, and it's hard to know where to start.
For a more data-driven perspective, we can consider the most-played cards in the Standard games of MTG Arena's Streamer Event. This small-scope event gave content creators a first opportunity to play with the new set on April 10. So, the most-played cards are the ones that spurred the most initial excitement.
Mythic Rares
Many mythic rare creatures in Outlaws of Thunder Junction provide excellent stats or sweet abilities for their mana cost.
Overall, a brand-new crime deck, perhaps featuring
Rares
The enemy-color fetch lands will have a massive impact on the format by improving the mana of enemy-color aggro decks. Boros Convoke is the prime benefactor, but Izzet Pirates or Simic Artifacts might also see a competitive breakthrough. Now that they finally have good mana with
Commons and Uncommons
Even the commons and uncommons of Outlaws of Thunder Junction provide sweet new tools. Although
Honestly, the new set is overflowing with potential. Between powerful buffs for existing archetypes and an abundance of possibilities for new brews, the number of options is nearly endless. I can't wait to see what the Pro Tour metagame will look like!
It would be a crime to not tune in to Pro Tour Thunder Junction on twitch.tv/magic April 26–28 to see some of the world's best Magic players competing for their share of $500,000. Pro Tour Thunder Junction will lay down the Standard metagame, so if you're looking for ideas on what to build for your upcoming Standard Showdown events, Store Championship, or Regional Championships, then don't miss the live video coverage!
The Road to Magic World Championship 30
At Pro Tour Thunder Junction, all competitors who clinch 36 match points and/or reach the Top 8 will receive an invitation to Magic World Championship 30—the crown jewel of Magic organized play. As we count down the weeks leading up to that tournament in late October, each week I'm taking a look at a great deck from a past Magic World Championship. After reviewing the World Championships from 1994, 1995, 1996, and 1997 in past installments, let's go back in time to 1998.
Like the upcoming Pro Tour, the 1998 Magic World Championship took place in Seattle, United States. There, 203 players from across the world gathered on August 12–16, 1998 to compete in Tempest Booster Draft, Standard, and Tempest Block Constructed. As usual, the Top 8 playoffs were Standard format. Brian Selden emerged victorious as one of the four players in the Top 8 who used the powerful combination of
The deck employed a toolbox of more than twenty creatures, most of which have an effect when they enter or perform some other useful function. For example, it has
With
Together, the two enchantments produce a formidable engine. In fact, when the 34th volume of the 1999 Duelist magazine published a list of Top 25 Magic combos of all time,
Today,
Perhaps this year, with Outlaws of Thunder Junction in the mix, an enterprising player might entomb