Hello and welcome back to Metagame Mentor, your weekly guide to the top decks and latest Constructed developments on the path to the Pro Tour. In preceding weeks, I highlighted the 10 biggest Standard stories from 2023 and the top 10 most important cards added to Modern in 2023. Today, I'll cover Pioneer, combining an analysis of the U.S. Regional Championship with an overview of the most important Pioneer metagame developments from all of 2023.
Pioneer at the U.S. Regional Championship
Pioneer is the nonrotating format based on expansion sets and core sets fromReturn to Ravnicaforward, with the most notable cards on the ban list being the fetch lands. With over 10,000 cards to choose from, Pioneer features a variety of powerful strategies, and this diversity was on full display at the U.S. Regional Championship at Dreamhack Atlanta last weekend. Regional Championships, held three times per year in each geographical region, are major focal points for competitive play, and most invites are earned through Regional Championship Qualifiers. In total, over 3,900 players from across the globe competed in this cycle of Regional Championships, beating the previous record of 3,419 players from the previous cycle.
1,306 players to 1… congratulations to your #DHAtlanta Regional Champion, Daniel Weiser with Azorius Control!#DHMTG #MTG @PlayMTG @wizards_magic pic.twitter.com/5IYDhSMJ5T
— DreamHack Magic (@DreamHackMagic) December 18, 2023
Congratulations to Daniel Weiser! After 17 rounds of competition with his Azorius Control deck, he became the new Regional Champion. In the finals, he defeated Mark Stanton, playing Izzet Phoenix. Both finalists earned an invitation to World Championship 30, held at MagicCon: Las Vegas on October 25–27, 2024. The Top 8 featured four different decks: Azorius Control, Izzet Phoenix, Amalia Combo, and Rakdos Midrange, all with two players each. The top 32 players who were not yet qualified for Pro Tour Murders at Karlov Manor earned an invitation to that Pro Tour, which will showcase Pioneer once again at MagicCon: Chicago on February 23–25, 2024.
Last weekend's U.S. Regional Championship had 1,307 enrolled competitors, possibly making it the largest invite-only Magic: the Gathering tournament of all time. To break down the decks, I algorithmically relabeled deck names and then determined the combined metagame share and match win rates (non-mirror, non-bye, non-draw) of every archetype. In the following table, each archetype name hyperlinks to a well-performing decklist close to the aggregate of that archetype.
Archetype | Percentage of Field | Match Win Rate |
---|---|---|
1. Rakdos Midrange | 15.9% ↑↑ | 49.8% |
2. Amalia Combo | 11.8% ↑↑ | 56.7% ✓✓ |
3. Izzet Phoenix | 10.2% | 51.1% |
4. Azorius Control | 8.4% | 59.6% ✓✓ |
5. Boros Convoke | 7.0% | 46.3% |
6. Rakdos Sacrifice | 5.0% | 49.1% |
7. Lotus Field Combo | 4.3% | 46.8% |
8. Gruul Vehicles | 3.2% | 49.5% |
9. Abzan Greasefang | 2.8% | 39.5% |
10. Grixis Phoenix | 2.8% | 43.6% |
11. Azorius Lotus Field | 2.6% | 43.0% |
12. Mono-White Humans | 2.5% | 43.5% |
13. Enigmatic Fires | 2.3% | 58.8% ✓✓ |
14. Azorius Spirits | 1.5% | 46.6% |
15. Quintorius Combo | 1.3% ↓↓ | 49.2% |
16. Selesnya Angels | 1.2% | 50.8% |
17. Mono-Green Devotion | 1.0% ↓↓ | 48.0% |
18. Izzet Creativity | 1.0% | 42.4% |
19. Boros Heroic | 1.0% | 52.3% |
20. Rona Lukka Combo | 0.9% | 46.6% |
21. Other | 13.4% | 44.6% |
As indicated by the arrows in the table, the metagame had changed since the previous Pioneer Regional Championships and the subsequent Banned and Restricted Announcement. Quintorius Combo ticked down after a poor performance during the previous Regional Championship weekend, while the ban of
As indicated by the check marks in the table, the best win rates were posted by Azorius Control, Enigmatic Fires, and Amalia Combo. These decks overperformed in a statistically significant way, and they were well-positioned for the metagame. With favorable matchup results against Rakdos Midrange—the most-played deck in the field—these three decks were great picks for the weekend. Meanwhile, Abzan Greasefang had a particularly poor performance as more and more players put
In the remainder of this article, I'll go over my picks for the top 10 Pioneer stories from 2023, in approximate chronological order. The first six entries in the list (#10, #9, #8, #7, #6, and #5) are largely based on historical developments from earlier in the year. The final four entries in the list (#4, #3, #2, and #1) are all based on Top 8 decklists from the U.S. Regional Championships.
10. The Victory of Izzet Creativity
We began the year with the return of the Pro Tour. Due to its prestige, large cash prizes, and international reach, the Pro Tour is the highest level of competitive Magic apart from the Magic World Championship, and Pro Tour Phyrexia was the first of the three Pro Tours held in 2023. After three days of competition in the Pioneer format, Reid Duke took the trophy with Izzet Creativity.
The Pro Tour wining deck, which teammates Reid Duke and Gabriel Nassif both took to the Top 8, played like a control strategy with a combo finish. Featuring a lot of cheap interactive spells, Izzet Creativity would keep the opponent at bay in the early game before eventually achieving victory with
Izzet Creativity experienced a rise and fall throughout the year. In January, the strategy was seen as a fringe archetype, with an inconsequential 1% of the metagame. After its success at Pro Tour Phyrexia, Izzet Creativity became a formidable Pioneer mainstay. For about half a year, it hovered around 5-8% of the metagame, as players tried different win conditions. In the first cycle of 2023 Pioneer Regional Championships, held in June and July, Izzet Creativity was the third-most-played deck overall, and players were split between
In the second cycle of 2023 Pioneer Regional Championships, which ended last weekend, Izzet Creativity faltered. The deck had not gained any new tools from the last few sets, while Izzet Phoenix, which has a similar early-game strategy, lured blue-red players with sweet new cards. Throughout the nearly three-month cycle, Izzet Creativity dropped to 1-2% of the field, with no standout results to speak of. Meanwhile,
While I don't know what the future of
9. The Revitalization of Rakdos Sacrifice
Rakdos Sacrifice was the breakout deck of the first cycle of Pioneer Regional Championships in 2023, showcasing the importance of deck familiarity in Pioneer.
Throughout the year, Rakdos decks have stayed on top of the metagame.
Rakdos Sacrifice centers around
The deck also showed the importance of choosing a Pioneer deck that matches your play style and expertise.
Yet despite the success of these archetype experts, Rakdos Sacrifice faltered in subsequent weeks, dropping a bit in both metagame share and win rate. A major reason is that Izzet Phoenix had been on the rise since the release ofWilds of Eldraine, and Rakdos Sacrifice struggles in that matchup. To make matters worse, good matchups like Mono-White Humans have been dropping in popularity. Nevertheless, it was a great year for Rakdos Sacrifice, and long-time archetype masters will always be able to leverage their expertise, no matter the metagame.
8. The Development of Rona Combo
Several new Pioneer combo decks appeared in 2023, including Neoform Atraxa, Omnath to Light, Archfiend Alteration, and many more. But one of the most prominent ones was enabled by a brand new card from March of the Machine: Rona, Herald of Invasion.
In the first weekend of the June–July cycle of Regional Championships, several players earned a Pro Tour invite with Rona decks: Antonio Guzman and Gabriel Maxson with disruption-heavy
In the first weekend of the September–December cycle of Pioneer Regional Championships, Samuele Estratti unveiled a spicy 80-card brew, finishing first after the Swiss at the European Championship. His deck could not only generate infinite mana with
7. The New Hogaak?
After Phyrexia: All Will Be One introduced
Boros Convoke can overwhelm opponents with enormous battlefields as early as turn two. With
In the first cycle of Pioneer Regional Championships, Boros Convoke claimed around 3-4% of the metagame, and Federico Vuono won the European Championship in June. The deck's best starts were as explosive as expected, but opponents brought enough sideboard cards to keep the strategy in check. In particular, sweepers like
During the second cycle of Pioneer Regional Championships, several new cards proved to be strong additions, and Boros Convoke rose to 4-7% of the metagame. Using
Soon after, The Lost Caverns of Ixalan added
6. A Brief Detour with Geological Appraiser
The Lost Caverns of Ixalan introduced the discover mechanic, featured on cards such as
It prompted a quick ban. Between the prerelease on November 11 and the Banned and Restricted Announcement on December 4,
Now a thing of the past, the combo started by resolving
With the Treasures created by
In the December 4 Banned and Restricted announcement,
Nevertheless, a discover strategy still remains in Pioneer. Quintoirus Combo uses
5. The Ban of Karn, the Great Creator
Mono-Green Devotion was one of the pillars of Pioneer, claiming around 10% of the metagame at most Pioneer events in 2023. It won several major tournaments in the summer: Weng Heng Soh emerged victorious at the Regional Championship for South East Asia, and Alexander von Stange took the trophy at the Regional Championship for Japan and Korea. As it featured a sideboard fully dedicated towards
By digging for the right cards with
The December 4 Banned and Restricted announcement pointed out that Karn facilitated "convoluted infinite combos that make the format less approachable". Furthermore, Karn's ability to naturally suppress artifacts "is likely keeping a spread of interesting cards from being played". Mono-Green Devotion, despite having a metagame share and win rate "within a reasonable range", was also seen as having a warping effect on the metagame: "With
Although the explosive ramp core of mana Elves, Nykthos, Kiora, and
The ban of Karn had ripple effects on the metagame. For example, Rakdos Sacrifice and Gruul Vehicles benefited, as they often struggled against Mono-Green Devotion when their
4. The Persistence of Azorius Control
While other decks emerged and disappeared,
With a solid suite of spot removal, countermagic, card draw, sweepers and planeswalkers, Azorius Control has remained the premier control deck in Pioneer throughout the entire year. As an interactive deck, it has game in every matchup, and the list can be tweaked to adapt to any metagame.
A main point of contention for Azorius Control players has been which companion to use. In my analysis of the summer cycle of 2023 Pioneer Regional Championships, I explained that versions without a companion or with
For both 60-card and 80-card afficionados, Azorius Control was boosted by The Lost Caverns of Ixalan, which introduced
All in all,
3. The Rebirth of Izzet Phoenix
Due to a variety of factors, Izzet Phoenix fell out of favor in the spring and summer of 2023, dropping to a measly 1-2% of the metagame. Its popularity had declined because the metagame had gotten more hostile to graveyard strategies, because the nightmare matchup of
As Izzet Phoenix aims to recur
Using these cards, numerous players earned Pro Tour invites at their Regional Championships. Gabriel Soto finished 10th at the European Championship, sparking global interest in the new build. At Toronto's F2F Tour Championship in November, half of the Top 8 used
The rise of Izzet Phoenix is still having ripple effects on the Pioneer metagame. Bigger fliers are good against Izzet Phoenix, so Selesnya Angels made a comeback. (To be more precise, the Selesnya Angels build with
2. The Emergence of Amalia Combo
Although
If you curve turn-two
A smooth Abzan build emerged to take advantage of the combo, with great results. Soon after the release of The Lost Caverns of Ixalan, Santiago Bigatti finished second at the South America Championship with Amalia Combo, cementing it as a prime contender in Pioneer. It quickly became clear that the deck is fast, consistent, and resilient. Indeed, all combo pieces can be found with
Last weekend at the U.S. Regional Championship, Amalia Combo surged to a whopping 11.8% of the Day 1 metagame, and it comprised 25% of the Top 32 slots at the end of the Swiss. Adam Brace, Robert Wagner Krankel, Ezra Lee, Devon Straub, Piper Powell, Brennan DeCandio, Brendan Cohen, and Grayson Nemets all earned a Pro Tour invite, giving them the opportunity to bring Amalia Combo to Pro Tour Murders at Karlov Manor on February 23–25, 2024 if they so please. Most of them had added
Based on the round-by-round results from the U.S. Regional Championship, Amalia combo struggles against Azorius Control, Boros Heroic, and Enigmatic Fires, but it is favored against red midrange decks like Izzet Phoenix and Gruul Vehicles, against non-interactive aggro decks like Boros Convoke and Mono-White Humans, and against slower combo decks like
1. The Return of Smuggler's Copter
On December 2, 2019, six weeks after the Pioneer format was introduced,
At the U.S. Regional Championship, the first premier Pioneer event after the unban, 309 players (23.9% of the registered field) included at least one copy of
The most prominent home for the vehicle was Rakdos Midrange. Indeed, the highest-finishing
Throughout 2023, Rakdos Midrange has been the most prominent deck in Pioneer. It was 15.1% of the field at Pro Tour Phyrexia, where Magic Hall of Famer Shota Yasooka took it to a Top 8 finish. Thanks to the top-notch individual card quality, it remained the most popular archetype across the June–July cycle of Regional Championships, claiming 19.0% of the field with numerous Top 8 finishes. It retained its number one spot during the September–December cycle of Regional Championships, typically at around 10–12% of the field. Using the archetype, Edgar Rangel won in Mexico City and Chen Bor Hong won in Taipei City.
At the U.S. Regional Championship last weekend, the archetype ticked up to 15.9% of the field, with approximately three-quarters of the Rakdos Midrange players adopting
With
Thank you for reading, and see you in 2024!