Hello and welcome back to Metagame Mentor, your weekly guide to the top decks and latest Constructed developments on the path to the Pro Tour. Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3 is coming up next week at MagicCon: Amsterdam, and the hype is through the roof. Modern Horizons 3 will undoubtedly be the most important Modern release of the year, and the set has already shaken up the Modern metagame.
In this article, I'll analyze the first Magic Online event results to give an early indication of what we might see at next week's Pro Tour. My quick summary is that Modern is genuinely a brewer's paradise right now. Modern Horizons 3 has introduced an enormous amount of unique, interesting, and powerful cards that all come with significant deck building restrictions. As a result, new archetypes have emerged, diversity has expanded, and the format is wide open. It's an incredibly exciting time to be a Modern player!
The Modern Metagame with Modern Horizons 3
Modern is a nonrotating 60-card format that was introduced in 2011 and that has captured the hearts of Magic: The Gathering players worldwide ever since. It allows expansion sets, core sets, and straight-to-Modern sets from Eight Edition forward, with the exception of cards on the banned list. With 21 years of card history, Modern features intricate card interactions and a vast array of viable strategies.
To grasp the state of Modern with Modern Horizons 3, I analyzed over 800 Magic Online decklists from Preliminary AND Challenge events held from June 12 through June 17. I also included 100 decks from the $5K RCQ at SCG CON Las Vegas. To obtain a metric that combines popularity and performance, I awarded points to each deck equal to its rectified number of net wins (i.e., its number of match wins minus losses if positive and zero otherwise). Each archetype's share of total rectified net wins can be interpreted as its share of the winner's metagame. In the following table, each archetype name hyperlinks to a well-performing, representative decklist.
Archetype | Winner's Metagame Share |
---|---|
1. Ruby Storm | 8.8% |
2. Bant Nadu | 7.6% |
3. Living End | 5.7% |
4. Mono-Red Prowess | 5.2% |
5. Eldrazi Tron | 4.5% |
6. Boros Burn | 4.2% |
7. Izzet Murktide | 3.6% |
8. Mono-Black Necro | 3.6% |
9. Izzet Wizards | 3.2% |
10. Esper Goryo's | 3.1% |
11. Golgari Yawgmoth | 2.8% |
12. Gruul Eldrazi | 2.8% |
13. Mono-Black Grief | 2.6% |
14. Boros Energy | 2.5% |
15. Azorius Control | 2.5% |
16. Jeskai Energy | 2.2% |
17. Dimir Mill | 1.7% |
18. Mardu Midrange | 1.7% |
19. Izzet Prowess | 1.6% |
20. Jund Sagavan | 1.6% |
21. Sultai Vengevine | 1.6% |
22. Other | 26.7% |
The "Other" category is the biggest of them all, featuring strategies both new and old like Rakdos Grief, Amulet Titan, Four-Color Nadu, Hardened Scales, Mono-White Martyr, Dimir Control, Merfolk, Domain Zoo, Boros Prowess, Jund Creativity, Simic Nadu, Four-Color Omnath, Jund Sagavan, Izzet Eldrazi, Orzhov Blink, Naya Landfall, Hammer Time, Gruul Scapeshift, Affinity, Mono-White Cage, Mono-White Blink, Rakdos Shadow, Dimir Nightmare, and many others. The number of competitively viable Modern archetypes is simply enormous, and the field is wide open.
So far, Modern Horizons 3 has led to a complete upheaval of the metagame. Last month, in my latest Modern snapshot, nearly half of the field at the top tables was comprised of Rakdos Grief, Golgari Yawgmoth, Domain Zoo, and Amulet Titan. This week, everyone is trying out all of the new cards. Those decks have almost disappeared while brand new decks built around
Yet, given that no single archetype exceeded 10% of the field, there is no clear indication where things might settle. The best players in the world have another week to break it before the Pro Tour, and anything might happen during that time. So, let's cast a wide net and take a look at the 14 archetypes with the highest winner's metagame share so far. To obtain representative decklists, I've used a decklist aggregation algorithm that takes into account the popularity, performance, and synergy of individual card choices.
1. Ruby Storm
Ruby Storm is a new combo strategy that utilizes
With the perfect draw, this deck can win as early as turn two, and it has soared to become the most prominent deck in the new Modern metagame. Turn three kills are more likely, but that's still formidable. The fact that
2. Bant Nadu
Bant Nadu is a new combo strategy based around
Due to its wording, Nadu's ability applies twice for each creature, not twice in total. When
This combo strategy is as powerful as it is consistent. Thanks to
3. Living End
Living End is a classic combo deck that aims to cycle several creatures and then cascade into
The deck has been a Modern mainstay for years, excelling against creature-based decks. Modern Horizons 3 did not drastically change the strategy, though a pair of
4. Mono-Red Prowess
After Slickshow Show-Off from Outlaws of Thunder Junction heralded the triumphant return of prowess decks to Modern, the strategy adopted the energy package from Modern Horizons 3 in a brutally efficient mono-red list. Although green mana can be spent on
The most important new addition is
5. Eldrazi Tron
Eldrazi Tron has been revitalized with Modern Horizons 3. By imprinting
All of this is wrapped up in a familiar Urzatron shell with
6. Boros Burn
Boros Burn embodies the philosophy of fire. The goal is to unleash a flurry of damage as quickly as possible, with an ideal opening hand featuring a turn one
Based on the aggregate list, the deck has not received any major upgrades from Modern Horizons 3. Nevertheless, when everyone is trying out new things, a straightforward burn plan can act as the fun police of the format. Moreover, some of the creature choices appear well-positioned, as the main deck
7. Izzet Murktide
Izzet Murktide has been a mainstay in Modern for years, combining cheap cantrips, efficient interaction, and powerful threats. The card advantage and velocity provided by
Although some lists explore the addition of
8. Mono-Black Necro
This Modern deck is based around the powerful new
Also, there is an opportunity to cast spells in between drawing cards and discarding to hand size, so you can pay an exorbitant amount of life, pitch loads of cards to
9. Izzet Wizards
Izzet Wizards makes the most of
Besides
10. Esper Goryo's
Esper Goryo's aims to discard
A new addition from Modern Horizons 3 is
11. Golgari Yawgmoth
Golgari Yawgmoth has taken a bit of a back seat as players are experimenting with all of the brand new decks, but it was one of the most-played decks prior to the release of Modern Horizons 3. The game plan is to combine undying creatures and
One such loop can be achieved with
With Modern Horizons 3, there is no consensus among Golgari Yawgmoth players on how to build it. The aggregate list features
12. Gruul Eldrazi
Gruul Eldrazi comes in various different builds, some more aggressive and some more controlling. The most prominent list is slow and top-heavy, but deadly once it gets rolling. The killing blow is using
Although there are many different versions of Gruul Eldrazi, all of them rely on four copies of
13. Mono-Black Grief
Mono-Black Grief has the dream of evoking
Another new addition is Nethergoyf, which is supported by
14. Boros Energy
Boros Energy is another novel archetype enabled by Modern Horizons 3. Between
But it doesn't end there, as this archetype is brimming with new cards. Phelia, Exuberant Shepherd can blink your own
In summary, Modern truly is a brewer's paradise right now. Boros Energy is just one of the many new archetypes enabled by Modern Horizons 3, and the diversity of sweet new decks is enormous. Anything could happen when the best in the world have an additional week to break the format, and I can't wait to see what the metagame at Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3 will be like!
The Road to Magic World Championship 30
At Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3, all competitors who clinch 36 match points and/or reach the Top 8 will receive an invitation to Magic World Championship 30—the crown jewel of Magic organized play. As we count down the weeks leading up to that tournament in late October, each week I'm taking a look at a great deck from a past Magic World Championship.
At the 2007 World Championship, a total of 386 competitors from 61 countries came to New York to compete across Standard, Draft, and Legacy. In the end, Uri Peleg took the trophy with a deck that was often referred to as Doran Rock.
To explain the history behind that name: "The Rock" is the name that Sol Malka gave to a black-green midrange deck with
Peleg's game plan was to play
An alternate plan was to leverage efficient disruption like
Yet from a historical perspective, the real standout in Peleg's list was the pair of planeswalkers:
Will planeswalkers make a similar impact on the upcoming premier events? To find out, tune in to twitch.tv/magic for live coverage of Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3 on June 28–30, 2024 and live coverage of Magic World Championship 30 on October 25–27!