Hello and welcome back to Metagame Mentor, your weekly guide to the top decks and latest Constructed developments on the path to the Pro Tour. This past weekend, 210 competitors entered the Regional Championship in Edmonton, Canada, all vying for the title of Regional Champion. In this article, we'll take a closer look at the Pioneer metagame, the Top 6 decks, and the "Phoenix" that rose from the ashes to claim the trophy.

Mr. Anderson conquers Edmonton!
Robert Anderson @randersonmtg defeats 209 players with Izzet Phoenix and he is the Canadian Regional West Champion!#MTG #F2FYEG @PlayMTG @BoSuCoaching pic.twitter.com/f0ClUnTeaK

— Face to Face Games (@FaceToFaceGames) June 19, 2023

Congratulations to Robert Anderson! The Pro Tour veteran and Grand Prix champion emerged victorious at the F2F Tour Championship (i.e., the West Canada Regional Championship) with Izzet Phoenix. In the finals, he faced Robert Smith, another Pro Tour veteran and Grand Prix champion, playing Azorius Spirits. The battle of the Roberts was a true Matrix showdown between Mr. Anderson and Mr. Smith, but in the end, Mr. Anderson proved that he was The One.

With his victory, Robert Anderson earned an invitation to World Championship XXIX, which will be held during MagicCon: Las Vegas on September 22–24. The Top 8 players earned invitations to Pro Tour The Lord of the Rings, held during MagicCon: Barcelona on July 28–30.

MagicCons celebrate all things Magic: The Gathering, and besides these premier invitation-only events, they feature awesome cosplay, incredible artists, fascinating panels, direct Pro Tour Qualifiers, the Secret Lair Showdown, and more. Tickets for both events are on sale, so don't miss out!

The Metagame and Win Rates

For the West Canada Regional Championship, I determined the metagame share and the match win rates (non-mirror, non-bye, non-draw) of every archetype. The following table summarizes the results, and the arrows highlight the biggest differences with the metagame from the preceding week's Regional Championships in Athens and Chinese Taipei.

In this table, each archetype name hyperlinks to a well-performing decklist close to the aggregate of that archetype. The "other" category included such deck archetypes as Mono-Black Midrange, Archfiend Alteration, Selesnya Angels, Elves, Dimir Rogues, Jeskai Ascendancy Combo, Orzhov Humans, Storm Herald Combo, Mono-Blue Spirits, Boros Humans, Esper Greasefang, Bant Spirits, Dimir Control, Boros Convoke, Mardu Greasefang, Mono-Red Aggro, Waste Not, Rona Combo, Bant Auras, Omnath to Light, Izzet Gift, and more.

Although the win rates are provided in the table for completeness, there was no archetype that performed significantly better or worse than 50% against the field. This possibly indicates a balanced metagame, but sample sizes were too small to assign any real meaning to the numbers. For reference, if a deck were winning or losing, say, 60% of its matches over a sample size of at least 100 matches, then that would convey extraordinary performance in a statistically significant sense. However, given the limited number of players and matches, no such conclusions can be drawn from the data of last weekend's Regional Championship.

What we can observe is that the Pioneer metagame hasn't been static. Rakdos Sacrifice and Azorius Spirits broke out, nearly overtaking Rakdos Midrange in the number one spot. In addition, various spicy decks that I covered in preceding weeks (such as Izzet Drakes, Archfiend Alteration, and Storm Herald Combo) appeared in larger numbers in Canada's metagame. Although none of them posted a strong performance last weekend, that's based on a small sample size of matches that's miniscule compared to the amount of matches their pilots played prior to selecting these decks. To me, the selection of these decks for the Regional Championship indicates the depth and diversity in Pioneer players' exploration of the meta.

The Top Six Decks

The Top 8 in Edmonton, Canada, featured six different archetypes, with Mono-Green Devotion appearing three times. Two of the Mono-Green Devotion players finished in eighth and seventh place, so the top six decks were comprised of six different archetypes, all with their own stories. Let's take a closer look at them in reverse final standing order.

Linden Koot finished in sixth place with a Rakdos Midrange deck featuring several distinctive card choices. First of all, he continued the recent trend of cutting Misery's Shadow from the main deck. Instead, he used the full four copies of Sheoldred, the Apocalypse as well as a single Extinction Event. As an additional tweak, he ran Heartless Act over Power Word Kill or Go for the Throat, preferring the ability to destroy Atraxa, Grand Unifier or Cityscape Leveler over the capability to destroy a sizable Thalia's Lieutenant. Finally, his list showed that Mutavault and Kroxa, Titan of Death's Hunger can perform quite well together. All of these small adjustments worked out well for him, yielding a Pro Tour qualification.

Despite Koot's card choice tweaks, Rakdos Midrange on the whole remains the same type of deck with which all active Pioneer players will be familiar. It's popular, can play a fair game against almost everything, and remains one the prime decks to beat.

Mono-Green Devotion has always been more popular among top players in Canada than in any other country, so I was not all that surprised to see three copies in the Top 8. The lists of Travis Benedict, Dustyn Nogueira, and Daniel Goresht were all fairly stock, with the power of Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx and Karn, the Great Creator propelling them to a Pro Tour invite. Like Rakdos Midrange, Mono-Green Devotion remains a prime deck to beat in Pioneer.

Since many Rakdos Midrange players have cut Misery's Shadow, their most common counterplay to Old-Growth Troll or Cavalier of Thorns, the matchup has become slightly favorable for Mono-Green Devotion. However, Mono-Green Devotion still struggles with aggro decks like Azorius Spirits, even after the recent addition of Polukranos Reborn.

While Rakdos Midrange and Mono-Green Devotion are perennial Pioneer mainstays, the top four decks show more interesting developments.

Edgar Magalhaes finished in fourth place with Rakdos Sacrifice. Although he had been playing Rakdos Midrange for a while, he "trusted the numbers that said that Rakdos Midrange wasn't good" and switched to Rakdos Sacrifice. The two decks share several cards, but Sacrifice has been performing far better than Midrange at premier Pioneer events in the 2022–23 season, including last year's Regional Championships and Pro Tour Phyrexia. Perhaps one reason for its higher win rate is that it is not as vulnerable to Fatal Push or other spot-removal spells, providing an edge in the Rakdos pseudo-mirror. Indeed, Cauldron Familiar and Unlucky Witness are embarrassing removal targets, and Mayhem Devil usually does critical damage the turn it comes down. By contrast, Sheoldred, the Apocalypse is as juicy of a target for spot-removal spells as they come.

In contrast to the Rakdos Sacrifice builds from last year's Regional Championships and Pro Tour Phyrexia, most current decklists use Thoughtseize in the main deck, bringing the strategy even closer to Rakdos Midrange. Main decking Thoughtseize was not an innovation from the current cycle of Regional Championships—it already was the standard in May—but it's one of the best interactive cards in the format, and its main-deck inclusion freed up sideboard slots for the likes of Duress and Rending Volley. All in all, Thoughtseize seems superior to the Village Rites it replaced.

Fable of the Mirror-Breaker, one of the cards that Rakdos Sacrifice has in common with Rakdos Midrange, is arguably even better in Rakdos Sacrifice. After all, Mayhem Devil unlocks a free ping when you sacrifice a Treasure or a Reflection of Kiki-Jiki copy. On the livestream, in Game 1 of Round 10, Edgar Magalheas provided a master class on how to make the most of double Reflection of Kiki-Jiki. By starting a copy chain in his own end step while his opponent was tapped out, a pair of copied ghosts remained after both originals died to spot removal spells, and they were floated end step after end step. Eventually, Mayhem Devil came down, and multiple copies of Mayhem Devil dealt lethal damage when everything had to be sacrificed at end of turn.

After watching Magalhaes navigate these intricate lines, I'd say that Rakdos Sacrifice is not an easy deck to pick up and play. Experience matters a ton, and Mayhem Devil rewards players who are good at math. Another important success factor is the sideboard. "Furnace Reins was crucial," Magalhaes said. "It's your main gameplan versus Mono-Green and a couple of other decks." Indeed, the new card from March of the Machine has proven to be superior to Kari Zev's Expertise because Mayhem Devil loves Treasures, and Jegantha, the Wellspring loves the single red mana symbol.

However, Magalhaes's sideboard did not contain any anti-graveyard cards like Go Blank, Unlicensed Hearse, or Leyline of the Void. This contrasts with many of the top-performing Rakdos Sacrifice lists from earlier in the year. And, given the make-up of the rest of the top four decks, he may have liked to have access to some of those cards.

Kevin Anctil finished in third place with Neoform Atraxa. The deck has a good matchup against Rakdos Midrange, and Anctil also felt he was favored against Rakdos Sacrifice. As Neoform Atraxa exploits the graveyard via delve creatures and Founding the Third Path, Anctil must have been happy not to face much graveyard hate from opposing sideboards.

His list featured several interesting tweaks. First of all, he had Dragonlord Atarka in the main deck, which is amazing against Mono-Green Devotion or Azorius Spirits as a Neoform target. "Worth the main-deck slot!" Anctil said. His sideboard also featured Hornet Queen, a form of counterplay against Mono-White Humans, and Hullbreaker Horror, which can stop Lotus Field Combo. If you face Neoform Atraxa and notice your opponent doesn't reveal Jegantha, the Wellspring for Game 2, then keep these creatures in mind.

Another important tweak was the use of four copies of Otherworldly Gaze, as most previous lists generally used only two or three copies. Given that, this deck which wants to fill up the graveyard for delve creatures and needs to dig for Neoform, Otherworldly Gaze is basically a Dark Ritual and Ancestral Recall all in one. The decisions on which cards to leave on top and when to cast it can benefit better players who know all the parts of the turn. For example, you can cast Otherworldly Gaze in your upkeep to improve your draw step. You can cast it in your draw step to set up your graveyard before triggering the third chapter of Founding the Third Path. You can cast in your opponent's turn to trigger Hullbreaker Horror. You can even flash it back, hold priority, and activate Tasigur, the Golden Fang in response to minimize bad selections. When I say "experience matters," it's these types of non-obvious plays that can make the difference.

Robert Smith finished in second place with Azorius Spirits. "It had performed well statistically in previous Pioneer tournaments," he explained, and rightfully so. Over the past few weeks, Azorius Spirits has posted above-average win rates and made the finals of Regional Championships multiple times: Théo Jacques-Griffin won the East Canada Regional Championship, and Przemyslaw Olszewski finished second at the European Championship. The list that Smith used last weekend was the same 75 as Olszewski, so it's likely to become the standard.

There hasn't been much innovation for Azorius Spirits in recent weeks. A pair of Slip Out the Back in the main deck has become the norm to protect enchanted Spirits and to win damage races, but the core of the deck has been well established for a while. So why is it on the rise? Perhaps it simply took players a few months to grasp the value of Seachrome Coast, as Bant Spirits and Mono-Blue Spirits were far more popular in 2022. Yet ever since Phyrexia: All Will Be One added the fast lands, the mana base favored Azorius Spirits.

In terms of metagame positioning, Azorius Spirits does well against ramp or combo decks like Mono-Green Devotion, Abzan Greasefang, Enigmatic Fires, and Lotus Field Combo. Its edge in these matchups is based on a combination of efficient disruption and a fast clock. However, Azorius Spirits has one glaring weakness, especially without Rest in Peace in the sideboard: Izzet Phoenix.

Izzet Phoenix was the perfect deck for the weekend. With it, Robert Anderson clinched a well-deserved trophy. When Rakdos Sacrifice and Azorius Spirits are on the rise, and many Pioneer sideboards skimp on graveyard hate, Izzet Phoenix is ideally positioned to take advantage. Cyclical metagame developments are sometimes best explained as a meme, and the champion himself elevated one.

Doomwake literally nailed my entire thought process https://t.co/lO3bZMJRIp

— Robert Anderson (@randersonmtg) June 19, 2023

Mr. Anderson's list takes us back in time. Apart from small tweaks in card choices, there is no considerable difference between his deck and the aggregate deck from last year's cycle of Pioneer Regional Championships. There's no Thing in the Ice. No Demilich. The only "innovation" that stood out to me was the choice to run three copies of Spikefield Hazard with only 18 regular lands and zero Stormcarved Coast. The removal of Stormcarved Coast makes it easier to cast blue cantrips in the early turns of the game and hit the lands you need, but it's not exactly groundbreaking.

Ultimately, the key takeaway from this weekend is that the Pioneer metagame is marching ever onwards. Rakdos Sacrifice and Azorius Spirits are getting more and more popular, and Izzet Phoenix will continue to prey on this development as people skimp on graveyard hate. If that's the case, it may be time for Leyline of the Void and Rest in Peace to return.

Looking Ahead

In this third cycle of Regional Championships, two weekends remain:

• June 24–25: Japan/South Korea and Australia/New Zealand.
• July 1–2: Brazil and South America.

The Regional Championship for Japan/South Korea will be streamed live, with commentary in Japanese, on the MTGJP channel. Coverage starts at 10 a.m. JST / 3 a.m. CET on Saturday, and the start time on Sunday is one hour earlier. In addition, while this does not constitute an official endorsement, an English co-stream was announced for and by fans of high-level Pioneer competition.

Next weekend I'm offering English commentary for the Japan/Korea RC at https://t.co/pOfniLoshL. Day one starts 9pm Eastern Friday night; day two 8pm Saturday. Expert/ruthless commentary will be provided by @Walaoumpa and @Ajelenbogen. Prop bets coming later this week! https://t.co/yp9XS7oogU

— ajlvi (@ajlvi) June 18, 2023

Pro Tour champion Andrew Elenbogen was excitedly looking forward to commentating: "The Japanese RC is awesome. Historically, it has featured legends of the game, substantial innovation, and high average quality of play. I'm looking forward to covering it."