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Metagame Mentor: Winners and Losers from Standard Rotation

July 25, 2024
Frank Karsten

Hello, and welcome back to Metagame Mentor, your weekly guide to the top decks and latest Constructed developments on the path to the Pro Tour. It's an exciting time for Standard players, as a new format is on the horizon. With the Prerelease of Bloomburrow, the oldest four set are about to rotate out of Standard, keeping the format fresh.

This article will cover the details of this Standard rotation. Several popular archetypes might not survive and others might now have an opportunity to stand out. I'll provide my picks for the most important cards that are rotating out of Standard, as well as the decks that lose almost nothing. But before diving into these winners and losers from the Standard rotation, let's start with a final metagame snapshot to set the stage.

The Standard Metagame in July 2024

To show what Standard looked like at its largest size ever, I analyzed 256 of the top decklists from Standard Challenges held on Magic Online in July. To each deck, I awarded a number of points equal to its number of match wins minus losses, if positive. The sample size is small, but each archetype's point share can be interpreted as its share of the winner's metagame.

Archetype Winner's Metagame Share
1. Boros Convoke 16.7%
2. Domain Ramp 15.1%
3. Orzhov Midrange 14.1%
4. Mono-Red Aggro 13.2%
5. Azorius Soldiers 8.0%
6. Golgari Midrange 8.0%
7. Temur Analyst 7.1%
8. Esper Midrange 5.9%
9. Gruul Prowess 3.5%
10. Azorius Control 2.4%
11. Other 6.1%

The latest development right before rotation is the rise of Orzhov Midrange, which is reminiscent of the Orzhov Bronco deck that broke out at Pro Tour Thunder Junction. The difference is that it runs more midrange cards instead of the combo of Insatiable Avarice and Shadow of Mortality. As such, it's similar to an Esper Midrange deck without the blue. Either way, Orzhov Midrange runs many of Standard's staple cards, such as Go for the Throat and Virtue of Loyalty. Sheoldred, the Apocalypse, though it will survive rotation, is not seeing as much play at the moment.

Over the past twelve months, based on the metagames at Magic World Championship XXIX, late 2023, early 2024, Pro Tour Thunder Junction, and the Standard Regional Championships, Standard has steadily featured a large, constantly evolving plethora of viable archetypes. Throughout this period, Raffine, Scheming Seer stood out as the defining card of Standard. As such, Esper Midrange was the most-played deck at both Magic World Championship XXIX and Pro Tour Thunder Junction. Other decks have put up good numbers throughout the past twelve months as well, including Domain Ramp, Boros Convoke, Golgari Midrange, Mono-Red Aggro, and Azorius Control. However, change is coming with rotation.

For example, Raffine, Scheming Seer is rotating out of Standard, weakening Esper Midrange as a result. And Boros Convoke—the most prominent deck in July's winner's metagame—will lose an essential enabler: Voldaren Epicure. You could replace it with Yotian Frontliner or perhaps splash for Spyglass Siren or Kellan, Daring Traveler, but heavy adaptation will be necessary. Yet other Standard decks are affected even more affected by the rotation.

What is Standard Rotation?


Rotation is the scheduled move of older Magic sets out of rotating formats, such as Standard and Alchemy. This makes room for cards from new set releases in these formats, keeping them fresh and exciting.

For much of its history, Standard had been on a two-year rotation. In 2023, this was changed to a three-year rotation. The intention was to make tabletop Standard more enjoyable, by giving cards more longevity and by allowing mechanics and archetypes to be built on over time. To facilitate the change, last year's fall set release of Wilds of Eldraine did not trigger a Standard rotation. This means that we will now get to experience the first Standard rotation in a while.

On Friday July 26, 2024, the official Prerelease date of Bloomburrow, the oldest four sets will rotate out of Standard this weekend:

  • Innistrad: Midnight Hunt
  • Innistrad: Crimson Vow
  • Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty
  • Streets of New Capenna

You can still use these cards in older formats. For tabletop play, these sets remain legal in Pioneer, Modern, Commander, and so on. On MTG Arena, you can still use rotated cards in Explorer, Historic, and Timeless.

After next week's rotation, Standard will be comprised of the following sets:

  • Rotating in Fall 2025: Dominaria United (DMU)
  • Rotating in Fall 2025: The Brothers' War (BRO)
  • Rotating in Fall 2025: Phyrexia: All Will Be One (ONE)
  • Rotating in Fall 2025: March of the Machine (MOM) and March of the Machine: The Aftermath (MAT)
  • Rotating in Fall 2026: Wilds of Eldraine (WOE)
  • Rotating in Fall 2026: The Lost Cavens of Ixalan (LCI)
  • Rotating in Fall 2026: Murders at Karlov Manor (MKM)
  • Rotating in Fall 2026: Outlaws of Thunder Junction (OTJ) and The Big Score (BIG)
  • Rotating in Fall 2027: Bloomburrow (BLB)

While the new cards from Bloomburrow are very exciting, the departure of four sets from Standard will likely have a larger competitive impact on the format than the introduction of one single set. Let's take a look at the most important cards to leave Standard and the decks most affected by it.

Loser: Esper Midrange

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Esper Midrange dominated Standard largely because it had access to the best three-drops in the format. Wedding Announcement offered board presence and card advantage all in one, providing lots of value over time. Raffine, Scheming Seer would run away with the game if unanswered, especially if you curved Dennick, Pious Apprentice on turn two into an immediate connive trigger.

With the Prerelease of Bloomburrow, all three of these cards will rotate out of Standard, so the reign of Esper Midrange looks to be over. Other white midrange decks, such as Orzhov Midrange, will also be much weaker without Wedding Announcement. In addition, white midrange players will have to look for an alternative to The Wandering Emperor.

Loser: Azorius Control

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Control mages are arguably affected even more by the rotation of The Wandering Emperor. The planeswalker was a fearsome threat in any combat step, potentially dealing with the best attacker while gaining life in the process. Azorius Control players loved to pass on turn four with either The Wandering Emperor or Memory Deluge available, placing their opponent in a bind. This will no longer be possible in post-rotation Standard. Both of these four mana spells rotate out, weakening Azorius Control.

March of Otherworldly Light, Farewell, and Depopulate will be lost as well. I wouldn't be surprised if Dimir Control would become the more prominent archetype for control players in post-rotation Standard. However, any blue control deck will still have to find a replacement for Memory Deluge. Due to its unique mix of midgame smoothing and late game inevitability, that might not be easy.

Loser: Four-Color Legends

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As Kamigawa: Neon Dynasty rotates out, the legendary channel lands will no longer be available in Standard. This affects nearly every deck. For decks playing a singleton Eiganjo, Seat of the Empire or Sokenzan, Crucible of Defiance, the impact is relatively small—you have less free utility in your mana base, but you'll just run a basic Plains or Mountain instead.

For the Four-Color Legends deck that broke out at Pro Tour Thunder Junction, the legendary lands were strategic cornerstones. By jamming lots of legendary creatures, this deck would reduce the channel cost of Takenuma, Abandoned Mire; Boseiju, Who Endures; or Otawara, Soaring City down to a single mana and then reuse them by looping Slogurk, the Overslime. As the legendary channel lands are rotating (and Slogurk, the Overslime with them), this strategy loses a lot of its core pieces.

Loser: Domain Ramp

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The rare cycle of tri-lands from Streets of New Capenna will rotate out of Standard, striking a heavy blow to Domain Ramp. These lands enabled the deck to play a cheap Leyline Binding and full-value Herd Migration, propelling Yoshihiko Ikawa to victory at Pro Tour Thunder Junction. The domain spells stick around, but without the tri-lands, it will be much harder to achieve domain. Moreover, Topiary Stomper will also rotate out of Standard, removing one of the best ways to put the right basic land types onto the battlefield.

In post-rotation Standard, it will still be possible to ramp into Atraxa, Grand Unifier with Ancient Cornucopia and Invasion of Zendikar. However, without the basic land type fixing, it will be a major challenge to incorporate Leyline Binding. As a result, these decks will have to be rebuilt from the ground up, and they might be forced to focus on fewer colors.

Loser: Temur Analyst

Brokers Hideout Cabaretti Courtyard Maestros Theater

The fetch lands are the second cycle of lands from Streets of New Capenna that will rotate out of Standard. This is a big deal for Temur Analyst, which aims to fill up the graveyard with lands, return them with Aftermath Analyst, and ramp into a game-winning Worldsoul's Rage. As the game plan pivots around these fetch lands, the deck may no longer be viable without them.

Sure, fetch lands like Evolving Wilds remain. But they don't provide life gain against aggro decks, and they can't be immediately sacrificed when Aftermath Analyst returns lands tapped. The Streets of New Capenna fetches are hard to replace, and I fear the entire strategy is doomed.

Loser: Mono-Red Aggro

Kumano Faces Kakkazan 534933 Bloodthirsty Adversary

Mono-Red Aggro and Gruul Prowess will lose one of the best red one-drops of all time in Kumano Faces Kakkazan. Ever since its release, almost every aggressive red deck has used four copies. Assuming you can leverage the second chapter, it effectively puts three power onto the battlefield, which is an unparalleled amount of pressure. Alternatives like Embereth Veteran or Phoenix Chick don't quite pack the same punch. Nor do they trigger Monastery Swiftspear or Slickshot Show-Off.

Other losses, such as Play With Fire or Bloodthirsty Adversary, are easier to replace. You could use Shock or Obliterating Bolt instead of Play with Fire, and you could consider Charming Scoundrel or Fugitive Codebreaker for the two-drop instead. While Mono-Red Aggro will never die, its competitive prospects will get much weaker without the busted draws provided by Kumano Faces Kakkazan.

Winner: The Bloomburrow Creature Types

629644 629526 Frolicking Familiar

Moving from the losers of rotation to the winners of rotation, we shift out attention to Bloomburrow.

The newest set explores a setting focused on anthropomorphic animals, where even the smallest creatures can have a big impact. Each color pair represents a dedicated creature type, with powerful payoffs for building a deck focused around that creature type. As a result, existing Standard cards with the right creature type might now have an opportunity to stand out.

For example, Tangled Colony is a Rat, Bramble Familiar is a Raccoon, Ruin-Lurker Bat is a Bat, Prairie Dog is a Squirrel, Frolicking Familiar is an Otter, Raging Battle Mouse is a Mouse, Aven Interruptor is a Bird, Regal Bunnicorn is a Rabbit, Poison Dart Frog is a Frog, and Pyrotechnic Performer is a Lizard. (Viashino received creature type errata, so Pyrotechnic Performer is now a Lizard.) All existing creatures with one of the ten Bloomburrow creature types gain plenty of typal synergies, and it'll be lots of fun to build Standard decks around them. Personally, I'm most excited to brew aggro decks with Mice, Rabbits, or Otters, where forgotten Standard cards might now have a chance to shine.

However, the new Bloomburrow cards are not the main focus of this article, so I will explore these decks and their possibilities at another time. Instead, the remainder of this article will focus on existing Standard decks that don't lose much from rotation. Although I will share sample lists, they are largely based on successful tournament decks from the past, so they will deliberately not showcase any Bloomburrow cards. That's how I usually approach rotation—evaluate what we know first, and focus on additions from the newest set later.

Winner: Golgari Midrange

3 Duress 3 Cut Down 4 Caustic Bronco 3 Sentinel of the Nameless City 3 Hostile Investigator 1 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse 4 Mosswood Dreadknight 1 Tranquil Frillback 1 Aclazotz, Deepest Betrayal 2 Liliana of the Veil 1 Bitter Triumph 4 Go for the Throat 1 Gix's Command 3 Glissa Sunslayer 4 Blooming Marsh 7 Swamp 4 Forest 3 Cavern of Souls 4 Llanowar Wastes 4 Restless Cottage 1 Hostile Investigator 3 Tranquil Frillback 3 Gix's Command 1 Harvester of Misery 2 Liliana of the Veil 1 Duress 1 Cut Down 2 Tear Asunder 1 Nissa, Ascended Animist

White midrange decks lose Wedding Announcement and The Wandering Emperor, leaving a void to be filled by non-white midrange decks. As Cut Down and Go for the Throat remain, a black core makes the most sense. Dimir Midrange could be a solid option, replacing the rotating Make Disappear with Phantom Interference, but I like Golgari Midrange better.

The post-rotation list shown above is based Erick Manuel Lopez Basulto's winning list from the latest Regional Championship for Mexico, Central America, and Caribbean, with a few adjustments to replace any rotating cards. For example, I turned Graveyard Trespasser into Sentinel of the Nameless City—a three-drop used by Richie Ong to win the South East Asia Championship.

Deathcap Glade rotates along with the legendary channel lands, but the mana base remained excellent after I replaced them with basic lands. In the sideboard, Path of Peril and Unlicensed Hearse were replaced with additional copies of Tranquil Frillback, Gix's Command, and Harvester of Misery. All in all, Golgari Midrange doesn't lose any key cards from rotation, so it could easily stand as one of the early decks to defeat in post-rotation Standard.

Winner: Simic Cookies

3 Gingerbrute 3 Hard-Hitting Question 2 Lost Jitte 3 Spyglass Siren 4 Teething Wurmlet 2 Agatha's Soul Cauldron 3 Subterranean Schooner 3 Surge Engine 4 Tough Cookie 2 Kitesail Larcenist 4 Sentinel of the Nameless City 4 Zoetic Glyph 4 Forest 4 Island 4 Botanical Sanctum 4 Yavimaya Coast 3 Mirrex 3 Restless Vinestalk 1 Cryptic Coat 3 Pick Your Poison 1 Soul-Guide Lantern 2 Negate 1 Kitesail Larcenist 1 Cryptic Coat 1 Haywire Mite 3 Tishana's Tidebinder 2 Repulsive Mutation 1 Tezzeret, Betrayer of Flesh

Throughout the Standard round of Regional Championships, Simic Cookies had a breakout performance, with several players piloting it to a Pro Tour invite. Named after Tough Cookie and Gingerbrute, the deck could turn tasty artifacts into enormous attackers. It can also exile Gingerbrute with Agatha's Soul Cauldron to make your creatures unblockable. And when almost every card in the deck puts an artifact onto the battlefield, Teething Wurmlet and Zoetic Glyph provide a fast clock.

Best of all: The deck doesn't lose anything, other than a few non-essential lands or sideboard cards, in the rotation! The decklist shown above is based on Jody Keith's 32nd place finishing list from the U.S. Regional Championship. Boseiju, Who Endures and Otawara, Soaring City turned into Forest and Island, while all other main deck cards remain legal.

While Mono-Red Aggro loses Kumano Faces Kakkazan and Boros Convoke loses Voldaren Epicure, Simic Cookies doesn't lose anything of note, so it's a major winner from rotation. If you like aggro decks, be sure to try it out!

Winner: Selesnya Toxic

4 Venerated Rotpriest 4 The Seedcore 4 Brushland 4 Tyvar's Stand 4 Jawbone Duelist 4 Crawling Chorus 4 Skrelv, Defector Mite 3 Annex Sentry 4 Razorverge Thicket 3 Audacity 4 Mirrex 4 Skrelv's Hive 4 Bloated Contaminator 4 Slaughter Singer 3 Plains 3 Forest 3 Destroy Evil 3 Melira, the Living Cure 2 Soul Partition 2 Phyrexian Censor 2 Ajani, Sleeper Agent 2 Carnivorous Canopy 1 Annex Sentry

In March 2023, Rei Sato made waves by winning the Regional Championship for Japan and South Korea with Selesnya Toxic, using a powerful curve of cheap toxic creatures to give the opponent 10 poison counters as quickly as possible. No matter how much life the opponent might gain, the poison counters keep ticking up, and the creatures are resilient to spot removal spells. Every nonland card in Sato's main deck is from Phyrexia: All Will Be One, meaning that nothing of relevance is rotating out right now.

Since then, the deck went through several upgrades. At first, Charge of the Mites was turned into Audacity, which is reflected in the decklist shown above. Then Bant Toxic became more popular, using March of Swirling Mist to set up lethal with Venerated Rotpriest. For quite a while, Bant Toxic fluctuated around 5% of the Standard metagame, but it loses March of Swirling Mist in the Standard rotation. As a result, a return to the original Selesnya Toxic deck could be viable.

Meanwhile, End the Festivities rotates out, removing a powerful sideboard option to stop your swarm of 1/1 creatures. So, if you like to dish out poison counters, then the time might be right for the return of Selesnya Toxic!

Winner: Soul Cauldron Combo

1 Jace, the Perfected Mind 3 Wrenn and Realmbreaker 1 Realm-Scorcher Hellkite 4 Kami of Whispered Hopes 4 Fallaji Archaeologist 2 Wasteful Harvest 4 Rona, Herald of Invasion 4 Sleep-Cursed Faerie 2 Unnatural Restoration 1 Brave the Wilds 4 Seed of Hope 4 Agatha's Soul Cauldron 2 Eaten by Piranhas 2 Sleight of Hand 1 Restless Vinestalk 6 Forest 2 Argoth, Sanctum of Nature 5 Island 4 Yavimaya Coast 4 Botanical Sanctum 4 Titania, Voice of Gaea 4 Cankerbloom 4 Negate 2 Animist's Might 1 Wrenn and Realmbreaker

With essential land cycles leaving the format, several Standard combo and ramp decks will not survive the rotation. This leaves an opportunity for other decks to rise in the void left by them. A prime example is Simic Cauldron, an archetype that was piloted to a 9th-place finish at last year's World Championship by Alexey Paulot. Although I made several tweaks to arrive at the post-rotation list shown above, the nonland part of his main deck is largely identical, as none of the key combo cards rotate out.

The game plan is to exile Sleep-Cursed Faerie with Agatha's Soul Cauldron, putting two +1/+1 counters onto Kami of Whispered Hopes and granting it the untap ability from Sleep-Cursed Faerie. This means that Kami of Whispered Hopes now taps for three mana and untaps for two mana, allowing you to generate infinite mana. If you control Rona, Herald of Invasion with a +1/+1 counter or have exiled one with Agatha's Soul Cauldron, then you can use infinite untaps to loot through your entire deck, find Realm-Scorcher Hellkite, and burn your opponent for infinite damage.

Now that more powerful combo engines are rotating out of Standard, the metagame might be open for Agatha's Soul Cauldron decks to stand out. Some of the best anti-graveyard tools in Graveyard Trespasser and Unlicensed Hearse are rotating as well, meaning that you might catch opponents without much interaction.

Winner: Azorius Soldiers

3 Harbin, Vanguard Aviator 4 Knight-Errant of Eos 4 Recruitment Officer 4 Resolute Reinforcements 4 Zephyr Sentinel 4 Warden of the Inner Sky 2 Yotian Frontliner 4 Valiant Veteran 2 Skystrike Officer 3 Protect the Negotiators 2 Get Lost 4 Adarkar Wastes 3 Cavern of Souls 3 Island 4 Plains 2 Mirrex 4 Fortified Beachhead 4 Seachrome Coast 3 Destroy Evil 3 Tocasia's Welcome 3 Invasion of Gobakhan 2 Aven Interrupter 2 Kutzil’s Flanker 1 Protect the Negotiators 1 Surge of Salvation

At last year's World Championship, Team Handshake unveiled a build of Azorius Soldiers that exploited Lunarch Veteran and Wedding Announcement, which has become the stock version ever since. Both these cards are rotating out, so my placement of Azorius Soldiers in the "winners" category might come as a surprise. Key cards like Resolute Reinforcements and Knight-Errant of Eos stick around. Given that Voldaren Epicure is rotating, Azorius Soldiers might prove to be a better home for them.

The post-rotation list shown above is based on Haruki Usui's version from Pro Tour March of the Machine, who innovated by adding Knight-Errant of Eos and Zephyr Sentinel to the deck. I had to make a few tweaks to account for rotating cards—for example, I turned Make Disappear into Protect the Negotiators and added Warden of the Inner Sky—but the heart of the strategy remains.

Overall, Standard changes tomorrow, and the new metagame will likely feature a mix of tweaked strategies and brand-new archetypes. I'm excited to see how it will develop!

The Road to Magic World Championship 30

Throughout Magic's long and rich history, the World Championship has always been the crown jewel of organized play, and the upcoming 30th edition will be one to celebrate. As I count down the weeks leading up to Magic World Championship 30 in late October, held at MagicCon: Las Vegas, each week I'm taking a look at a great deck from a past Magic World Championship.

At the 2011 World Championship, a total of 375 players from 60 countries came to San Francisco to compete across Standard, Draft, and Modern. This was the first World Championship to feature the new Modern format. The Top 8 playoffs were, as always, Standard.

The main story from the event was the dominance of team ChannelFireball, with four members making it to the Top 8: Conley Woods, Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa, Luis Scott-Vargas and Josh Utter-Leyton. Additionally, they were all playing identical Tempered Steel decks!

4 Memnite 4 Signal Pest 4 Vault Skirge 4 Glint Hawk 4 Etched Champion 1 Mikaeus, the Lunarch 4 Dispatch 4 Glint Hawk Idol 4 Origin Spellbomb 4 Mox Opal 4 Tempered Steel 4 Inkmoth Nexus 4 Seachrome Coast 2 Moorland Haunt 9 Plains 4 Shrine of Loyal Legions 3 Spellskite 3 Hero of Bladehold 2 Dismember 1 Oblivion Ring 1 Timely Reinforcements 1 Glacial Fortress

This aggressive deck would swarm the opponent with cheap artifacts creatures, all of which received a huge boost from Tempered Steel. An ideal opening would lead with Memnite, Memnite, Mox Opal, and Signal Pest on turn one, followed by Tempered Steel to attack for 10 on turn two.

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Mox Opal is one heck of a card and it excelled in this artifact-rich deck. In Standard, Arcbound Ravager or Cranial Plating were not legal, so Tempered Steel was the only major "big" card in the deck. Games where you didn't draw the eponymous enchantment were more of a struggle, but you could still get it done with evasive attackers like Glint Hawk, Etched Champion, and Glint Hawk Idol. Games where you did draw Tempered Steel tended to wrap up quickly, with a playstyle similar to the old Affinity decks in Modern.

While Tempered Steel was the breakout deck of the tournament, it did not end up winning. After a dazzling number of hard-fought matches, Jun'ya Iyanaga from Japan became the 2011 World Champion, playing Wolf Run Ramp in Standard. This red-green ramp deck would use Rampant Growth to get ahead of the opponent on mana, leading into Primeval Titan as the main win condition. Primeval Titan would then go and get Inkmoth Nexus and Kessig Wolf Run, with the goal of eventually poisoning the opponent to death. Along with Slagstorm to sweep opposing battlefields, the strategy proved successful, crushing the Tempered Steel decks in the Top 8.

2011 Magic World Champion Jun'ya Iyanaga


Standard in 2011 looks nothing like Standard in 2024, but one thing is for sure: The post-rotation format will be wide open for exploration. With the release of Duskmourn: House of Horror coming up in late September, the format will keep evolving, after which it will take center stage at this year's World Championship. The best players in the world will be exploring this fresh format for Magic World Championship 30. Save the date to catch all the action live: October 25–27, 2024!

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