Wins and Lessons from Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3

Metagame Mentor: Wins and Lessons from Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3

July 11, 2024

Frank Karsten

Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3 had a stacked Top 8 with breakout Modern decks, some of the game's greatest players, and hard-fought matches. In the end, 2023's Player of the Year Simon Nielsen secured his first-ever Pro Tour victory. After two incredible years, during which he made Top 8 in five out of six premier events, he could finally call himself a Pro Tour champion.

Congratulations to Simon Nielsen, Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3 Champion!

While the Pro Tour rewarded performance in both Limited and Modern, today's article will consider the win rates and standout decks from only the Modern rounds. By removing the Draft portion and looking beyond the Top 8, we'll get a better sense of the biggest Modern lessons from the event overall. This is particularly important because Modern will be the designated Constructed format for the next round of RCQs, which will begin on August 3, 2024 and run until November 3, 2024.

Modern Win Rates at the Pro Tour

According to the Pro Tour Metagame Breakdown, the most popular archetype by far was Bant Nadu at 20% of the field. This wasn't the highest metagame share of any one archetype at a Modern Pro Tour—we had 31% Jund Midrange in 2012 and 28% Abzan Midrange in 2015—but Bant Nadu was quite popular. Moreover, it performed extremely well.

In the table below, you can find the non-mirror, non-draw, non-bye match record and win rate of every archetype in the Standard Swiss rounds. Each archetype name hyperlinks to a representative decklist.

Archetype	Number of Players	Record and Win Rate
Dimir Murktide	1	7-3 (70.0%)
Living End	3	15-10 (60.0%)
Bant Control	1	6-4 (60.0%)
Mardu Midrange	1	3-2 (60.0%)
Domain Zoo	1	6-4 (60.0%)
Bant Nadu	49	178-122 (59.3%)
Gruul Prowess	4	17-13 (56.7%)
Boros Burn	3	14-11 (56.0%)
Four-Color Nadu	13	63-50 (55.8%)
Esper Goryo's	5	20-16 (55.6%)
Eldrazi Tron	14	56-47 (54.4%)
Mono-Black Necro	17	64-58 (52.5%)
Izzet Murktide	5	19-18 (51.4%)
Gruul Eldrazi	6	22-21 (51.2%)
Boros Energy	13	51-50 (50.5%)
Sultai Vengevine	1	5-5 (50.0%)
Jeskai Control	22	76-79 (49.0%)
Mono-Black Grief	6	22-24 (47.8%)
Jeskai Dress Down	6	23-26 (46.9%)
Merfolk	2	7-8 (46.7%)
Jeskai Chant	2	6-7 (46.2%)
Golgari Yawgmoth	4	16-19 (45.7%)
Mardu Energy	5	12-17 (41.4%)
Temur Eldrazi	2	8-12 (40.0%)
Grixis Shadow	1	2-3 (40.0%)
Abzan Soultrader	1	2-3 (40.0%)
Azorius Hammer	1	2-3 (40.0%)
Dimir Grief	1	2-3 (40.0%)
Boros Prowess	1	4-6 (40.0%)
Jeskai Prowess	1	2-3 (40.0%)
Four-Color Reclamation	1	4-6 (40.0%)
Dimir Mill	1	2-3 (40.0%)
Rakdos Grief	2	3-5 (37.5%)
Ruby Storm	23	38-69 (35.5%)
Jeskai Wizards	12	22-41 (34.9%)
Amulet Titan	2	3-6 (33.3%)
Four-color Control	1	1-2 (33.3%)
Izzet Wizards	3	6-13 (31.6%)
Dimir Nethergoyf	1	1-3 (25.0%)
Devoted Nadu	1	1-4 (20.0%)
Gruul Scapeshift	1	1-4 (20.0%)
Jund Creativity	1	1-4 (20.0%)
Mono-Red Prowess	1	0-3 (0.0%)
Hardened Scales	1	0-3 (0.0%)

Although sample sizes were relatively small, Bant Nadu had an astounding non-mirror, non-draw, non-bye win rate of 59.3% at the Pro Tour. The corresponding 95% confidence interval ranged from 53.5% to 64.9%, indicating a very strong performance for the most-played deck in the field. For comparison, Rakdos Grief had a 54% winrate at Pro Tour The Lord of the Rings in 2023, and Hogaak had a 56% winrate at Mythic Championship IV in 2019. This makes Bant Nadu's performance one of the best in Modern Pro Tour history, and Four-Color Nadu was not far behind.

Other large Modern tournaments at MagicCon: Amsterdam (the $75K Modern Open, Second Chance PTQ, Secret Lair Showdown Championship, and Modern Cup) featured fewer Bant Nadu decks and more variety overall, but the non-mirror, non-draw, non-bye win rate of Bant Nadu across those tournaments was a very similar 59.1%. Even if some players may have been slightly underprepared for the Bant Nadu match-up, the Bird is certainly the word.

Other popular decks underperformed in the Pro Tour metagame. In particular, players were ready for Ruby Storm with Damping Sphere, Drannith Magistrate, and other sideboard cards, leading to a poor results from Ruby Storm.

Note that Magic: The Gathering® – Assassin's Creed® cards were not yet legal at the Pro Tour, but powerful new cards like Basim Ibn Ishaq may be worth keeping an eye on in Modern going forward.

The Modern Decks and Players with 7+ Wins

As a reference, here are all decks with at least seven Modern non-bye wins at Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3, along with their combined non-bye Swiss and Top 8 record, in descending order of their win rate:

Next, let's take a closer look at top-performing decks and the lessons to take away from this tournament.

Bant Nadu Dominated

2 Boseiju, Who Endures 1 Breeding Pool 2 Bristly Bill, Spine Sower 4 Chord of Calling 4 Delighted Halfling 1 Dryad Arbor 1 Endurance 2 Forest 1 Hallowed Fountain 2 Haywire Mite 1 Hedge Maze 1 Lush Portico 4 Misty Rainforest 4 Nadu, Winged Wisdom 1 Noble Hierarch 1 Otawara, Soaring City 1 Outrider en-Kor 1 Shifting Woodland 4 Shuko 4 Springheart Nantuko 2 Summoner's Pact 1 Sylvan Safekeeper 1 Temple Garden 2 The One Ring 4 Urza's Saga 2 Wall of Roots 1 Waterlogged Grove 4 Windswept Heath 1 Yavimaya, Cradle of Growth

1 Burrenton Forge-Tender 1 Dismember 1 Drannith Magistrate 1 Endurance 1 Force of Vigor 1 Shadowspear 1 Soulless Jailer 1 Spell Pierce 2 Suncleanser 2 Teferi, Time Raveler 2 Veil of Summer 1 Volatile Stormdrake

Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3 proved that the hype for Nadu, Winged Wisdom was well founded. Together with Shuko and Springheart Nantuko, you can basically draw your entire deck as early as turn three, and this strategy dominated the Modern rounds at the Pro Tour. Above, you can see the deck that Simon Nielsen used to clinch the trophy. It's fast, consistent, and deadly.

There were various builds going around, including ones with a black splash, ones with Malevolent Rumble and/or Arboreal Grazer, versions with Devoted Druid, and more. Ultimately, the versions fielded by Team Handshake Ultimate Guard and Team ChannelFireball Ultimate Guard faced off in the finals, and their Bant Nadu builds looked quite similar. Going forward, I would recommend adopting Sam Pardee's main deck Volatile Stormdrake because it can steal Nadu in the mirror match and his sideboard Skyclave Apparition because it's a valuable answer to Harsh Mentor. Other than those tweaks, Simon Nielsen's list is overall well tuned.

The best-performing lists all won without Thassa's Oracle, instead relying on convoluted Endurance and Sylvan Safekeeper loops. After drawing your entire deck, you can get to a point where your library consists of three lands and you have bestowed Springheart Nantuko onto Endurance. Then you target a few Insect tokens to put the three lands onto the battlefield, tap them for mana, make a copy of Endurance, sacrifice the lands to Sylvan Safekeeper in response, and put them back into your library. You can loop this for infinite mana and infinite Bristly Bill, Spine Sower triggers.

If that's not enough to win the game outright, you can loop a library of Otawara, Soaring City; Boseiju, Who Endures; and Waterlogged Grove to leave your opponent with no permanents other than a few basic lands. The loops are nearly impossible to execute on Magic Online, but they show how Pro Tour players look for every possible optimization. Bant Nadu lists without Thassa's Oracle were mostly fielded by experienced Pro Tour veterans, and their 64.6% win rate was even higher than the average for the archetype.

Jeskai Control was the Best-Performing Jeskai Variant

4 Arid Mesa 4 Counterspell 4 Force of Negation 4 Flooded Strand 4 The One Ring 2 Hallowed Fountain 1 Invert Polarity 1 Plains 1 Meticulous Archive 1 Mountain 1 Mystic Gate 1 Island 2 Teferi, Time Raveler 4 Subtlety 1 Minamo, School at Water's Edge 1 Elegant Parlor 1 Scalding Tarn 1 Spell Snare 2 Steam Vents 1 Thundering Falls 3 Tune the Narrative 4 Galvanic Discharge 3 Wrath of the Skies 1 Supreme Verdict 2 Dress Down 1 Monumental Henge 3 Phlage, Titan of Fire's Fury 2 Lórien Revealed

3 Consign to Memory 3 Drannith Magistrate 2 Celestial Purge 1 Invert Polarity 1 Soul-Guide Lantern 1 Commandeer 1 Phlage, Titan of Fire's Fury 1 Wrath of the Skies 1 Supreme Verdict 1 Mystical Dispute

After Modern Horizons 3 added a suite of new tools, many different Jeskai decks appeared at the Pro Tour, all using the energy package of Tune the Narrative, Galvanic Discharge, and Wrath of the Skies to control the game and Phlage, Titan of Fire's Fury as their win condition. Between Jeskai Control, Jeskai Wizards, Jeskai Dress Down, and Jeskai Chant, the best-performing versions were Jeskai Control builds with Force of Negation, Subtlety over Solitude, and Prismatic Ending.

These card choices were wise in a metagame dominated by Bant Nadu. Spot-removal spells can answer Nadu, but they reward the opponent with a free card in the process. Countermagic that sidesteps Delighted Halfling is superior. Moreover, Wrath of the Skies was an excellent answer to a deck reliant on building up a board state, as it would sweep mana creatures, Shuko, Urza's Saga, and/or Nadu all in one go. Javier Dominguez made the Top 8 of the Pro Tour with such a list, which he built to design Bant Nadu, and Isaac Bullwinkle made the Top 8 of the Modern $75K Open. If you like control, then this deck is a great place to start.

The other Jeskai decks showed some promise as well, though. Wizards stood out with a solid match-up against Bant Nadu specifically, using Flame of Anor to destroy Shuko and Nadu, Winged Wisdom in one go. However, it fared relatively poorly against the rest of the field. The Jeskai Dress Down variant showcased the awesome ability to annihilate opponents with an early Nulldrifter, but it seemed to too slow against Bant Nadu.

Dimir Murktide had the Best Winrate of All Archetypes

4 Psychic Frog 4 Murktide Regent 3 Deep Analysis 2 Flooded Strand 2 Polluted Delta 2 Drown in the Loch 4 Fatal Push 3 Spell Snare 1 Force of Negation 4 Counterspell 4 Preordain 3 Spell Pierce 2 Undercity Sewers 2 Misty Rainforest 2 Watery Grave 4 Darkslick Shores 3 Island 2 Scalding Tarn 3 Consider 2 Subtlety 4 Orcish Bowmasters

3 Break the Ice 2 Stern Scolding 3 Consign to Memory 1 Shadows' Verdict 1 Subtlety 2 Nihil Spellbomb 1 Toxic Deluge 1 Force of Negation 1 Spell Snare

Out of all the different Modern deck archetypes at the Pro Tour, Dimir Murktide had the best winrate overall. Although only one player used the deck, none other than 2021 Magic World Champion Yuta Takahashi took it to a 7-3 record, for a 70% win rate. Labeled as Dimir Murktide, the basic plan is to use countermagic, spot removal, and card-draw spells to fill the graveyard for Murktide Regent, quickly turning it into a two-mana 8/8 flier. In that sense, it's similar to Izzet Murktide, just with a different interactive suite.

But the real standouts are the new-to-Modern cards from Modern Horizons 3: Psychic Frog and Deep Analysis. Together, they evoke memories of the Psychatog decks that dominated Standard back in 2002, bringing a lot of nostalgia to players who played at that time. Back then, the original Psychatog would discard Deep Analysis, allowing you to flash it back for two mana while boosting its power. Psychic Frog is a sweet throwback to the original Psychatog, and Yuta Takahashi showed that similar synergies and interactions are possible in the new Modern. If you like midrange, then this deck is a great place to start.

Gruul Prowess Could Kill on Turn Two

3 Mountain 3 Stomping Ground 3 Scalding Tarn 3 Arid Mesa 2 Bloodstained Mire 1 Commercial District 2 Wooded Foothills 1 Legion Leadership 1 Underworld Breach 4 Lava Dart 4 Lightning Bolt 3 Mutagenic Growth 2 Monstrous Rage 2 Blossoming Defense 3 Scale Up 4 Mishra's Bauble 4 Soul-Scar Mage 4 Monastery Swiftspear 3 Assault Strobe 4 Dragon's Rage Channeler 4 Slickshot Show-Off

4 Questing Druid 3 Harsh Mentor 2 Pick Your Poison 2 Snakeskin Veil 2 Tormod's Crypt 2 Abrade

Brian Boss fell just outside of the Top 8, finishing in 13th place with a sweet Gruul Prowess list that he piloted to a 6-4 record in the Modern rounds. While Monastery Swiftspear and Slickshot Show-Off are standard inclusions for the archetype, Boss's take is the only deck at the tournament to include Soul-Scar Mage, Assault Strobe, Scale Up, Legion Leadership, Blossoming Defense, Monstrous Rage, and Snakeskin Veil.

The unique part of the deck is the combo angle of Scale Up and Assault Strobe. With Soul-Scar Mage on turn one, you can play both cards on turn two to create an 8-power double striker. Add Mutagenic Growth, and you can deal lethal damage as early as turn two! Especially when many combo decks can win as early as turn three, winning faster is a great path to victory. Another well-positioned card in the sideboard is Harsh Mentor, which is one of the best possible sideboard cards against Bant Nadu in the format. If you like aggro, then this Gruul Prowess brew is a great place to start.

Mono-Black Necro held up Necropotence's Legacy

4 Necrodominance 4 Soul Spike 2 Shambling Ghast 4 Orcish Bowmasters 4 Grief 2 Flare of Malice 4 March of Wretched Sorrow 4 Fell the Profane 2 Agadeem's Awakening 2 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse 4 The One Ring 4 Malakir Rebirth 4 Boggart Trawler 3 Phyrexian Tower 2 Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth 6 Swamp 4 Inquisition of Kozilek 1 Force of Despair

1 Force of Despair 2 Dauthi Voidwalker 2 Fatal Push 3 Break the Ice 4 Soulless Jailer 2 Thoughtseize 1 Surgical Extraction

Mono-Black Necro did not do particularly well against Bant Nadu, but it still had a solid showing overall. Necropotence is one of the most broken cards of all time, dominating Magic in the '90s alongside Dark Ritual, Drain Life, and powerful combo strategies. One life for one card is a shocking level of efficiency. While Necropotence was underrated at the time of its release, the power of Necrodominance was not glanced over.

Seth Manfield and Ma Noah both made it to the Top 8 with a deck that could trade resources in the early turns before refilling with Necrodominance. Along with Sheoldred, the Apocalypse; March of Wretched Sorrow; and Soul Spike, you were not just paying life to draw cards—you were paying life to gain even more life.

Beyond these similarities, there were also differences between their lists. Ma Noah used more two-drop creatures, while Seth Manfield exploited The One Ring as a backup card-draw engine. Both approaches have merit, but the best-performing decks from the Modern $75K Open used The One Ring, so I anticipate that this will become the norm going forward along with Shambling Ghast. The one-drop might look bland, but along with Phyrexian Tower, you can play Sheoldred or The One Ring as early as turn two. Modern is a fast format nowadays, and you need all the speed you can get.

Old Favorites shouldn't be Underestimated

1 Arboreal Grazer 1 Blood Artist 2 Boseiju, Who Endures 4 Chord of Calling 3 Chthonian Nightmare 4 Delighted Halfling 1 Dryad Arbor 1 Endurance 4 Flare of Cultivation 4 Forest 1 Gilded Goose 4 Grist, the Hunger Tide 2 Grist, Voracious Larva 1 Hapatra, Vizier of Poisons 4 Orcish Bowmasters 2 Overgrown Tomb 1 Phyrexian Tower 2 Strangleroot Geist 2 Swamp 1 Twilight Mire 1 Underground Mortuary 4 Verdant Catacombs 2 Windswept Heath 4 Yawgmoth, Thran Physician 4 Young Wolf

1 Collector Ouphe 1 Damping Sphere 2 Endurance 2 Fatal Push 1 Force of Despair 1 Force of Vigor 1 Fulminator Mage 1 Haywire Mite 2 Necromentia 1 Reclamation Sage 1 Sheoldred, the Apocalypse 1 Soulless Jailer

Despite the metagame upheaval caused by Modern Horizons 3, various old Modern favorites still performed well, including Domain Zoo, Boros Burn, Esper Goryo's, Living End, Izzet Murktide, and Golgari Yawgmoth. One list that stood out was Nicolas Biekert's Golgari Yawgmoth list. Playing in his first Pro Tour, he went a respectable 6-4 in the Modern rounds, but he did not win enough Limited matches to qualify for the next Pro Tour. However, on Sunday, there is always a Second Chance Pro Tour Qualifier for Pro Tour competitors, where he was able to go undefeated and secure a slot for the first Pro Tour in 2025.

His list not only had an excellent Modern record but also showcases several sweet new cards from Modern Horizons 3. Flare of Cultivation can sacrifice Young Wolf or Strangleroot Geist for a quick mana boost, allowing you to drop Yawgmoth, Thran Physician before an opponent might combo off. Next, Chthonian Nightmare can sacrifice Orc Army tokens to return dead creatures from the graveyard, providing counterplay to opposing removal spells in grindy match-ups. And whenever a creature is returned through undying or Chthonian Nightmare, the new Grist, Voracious Larva will trigger, allowing you to transform it into a planeswalker with ease. These card choices were unusual

One Goryo's Vengence Deck Went 16-0

2 Flooded Strand 4 Polluted Delta 4 Marsh Flats 1 Godless Shrine 1 Watery Grave 1 Hallowed Fountain 1 Underground Mortuary 1 Shadowy Backstreet 1 Undercity Sewers 1 Meticulous Archive 1 Island 1 Swamp 1 Plains 3 Prismatic Ending 3 Thoughtseize 4 Fallaji Archaeologist 4 Ephemerate 4 Goryo's Vengeance 2 Priest of Fell Rites 2 Psychic Frog 3 Solitude 4 Grief 4 Atraxa, Grand Unifier 2 Griselbrand 4 Tainted Indulgence 1 Force of Negation

3 Wrath of the Skies 1 Leyline of Sanctity 3 Celestial Purge 3 Consign to Memory 2 Drannith Magistrate 2 Nihil Spellbomb 1 Teferi, Time Raveler

Although Matt Sperling did not do well in the Limited rounds at the Pro Tour, he absolutely crushed the Modern portion, going 10-0 with his Esper Goryo's deck. Although the Modern Horizons 3 additions are minor—Psychic Frog in the main deck, along with Wrath of the Skies and Consign to Memory for the sideboard—the core strategy of reanimating and blinking Atraxa, Grand Unifier remains powerful and proactive. Yet with Grief and Solitude, Esper Goryo's can play like a control deck in disguise, and the large amount of interaction resulted in a favorable match-up against Bant Nadu.

On Sunday, Sperling's actual 75 cards were picked up by Kai Budde, who traditionally never loses on Sunday. Indeed, the legacy of Kai Budde's incredible competitive history was celebrated by naming the Player of the Year trophy in his honor. Following that announcement, Kai Budde went 6-0 in the Second Chance Pro Tour Qualifier for Pro Tour competitors, sending this Esper Goryo's deck to an astounding 16-0 record over the weekend. Technically, a few sideboard cards were changed at Matt Sperling's suggestion: 2 Drannith Magistrate and 1 Teferi, Time Raveler were cut to make room for an additional Consign to Memory, Nihil Spellbomb, and Leyline of Sanctity on Sunday. But the main deck featured the same physical cards, which proved unbeatable.

All in all, Bant Nadu might be dominating Modern right now, but a large number of other decks also emerged after the release of Modern Horizons 3, showing the potential depth and diversity of Modern as we move toward the next round of RCQs. According to the June 24 Banned and Restricted Announcement, which mentioned that "Nadu, Winged Wisdom has raised some early concerns," the next banned and restricted announcement will be "in late August."

The Road to Magic World Championship 30

At Pro Tour Modern Horizons 3, all competitors who clinched 36 match points and/or reached the Top 8 received an invitation to Magic World Championship 30—the crown jewel of Magic organized play. As we count down the weeks leading up to that tournament in late October, each week, I'll be taking a look at a great deck from a past Magic World Championship.

At the 2009 World Championship, a total of 409 competitors from 65 countries came to Rome, Italy to compete across Standard, Draft, and Extended. It was a memorable event for myself because I was inducted into the Hall of Fame at the start of the tournament. In the end, André Coimbra from Portugal took the trophy, armed with a Naya deck.

4 Arid Mesa 4 Forest 3 Mountain 1 Oran-Rief, the Vastwood 4 Plains 4 Rootbound Crag 4 Sunpetal Grove 4 Baneslayer Angel 4 Bloodbraid Elf 4 Noble Hierarch 4 Ranger of Eos 1 Scute Mob 4 Wild Nacatl 4 Woolly Thoctar 3 Ajani Vengeant 4 Lightning Bolt 4 Path to Exile

1 Ajani Vengeant 2 Burst Lightning 4 Celestial Purge 4 Goblin Ruinblaster 4 Great Sable Stag

André Coimbra emerged victorious in a field dominated by Jund Midrange—a deck that would leverage cards like Bloodbraid Elf, Sprouting Thrinax, and Blightning to bury the opponent in card advantage. Although he sliced through the Top 8 with a deck that was sometimes touted as a “Jund-slayer”, I remember testing the match-up with his quarterfinal opponent Marijn Lybaert during his celebratory Top 8 dinner, and the deck's match-ups, positioning, and consistency were hotly debated.

Naya Lightsaber was capable of powerful, fast starts. Ideally, you would curve Noble Hierarch into a turn-two Woolly Thoctar or apply early pressure with a turn-one Wild Nacatl. Although the potential was high, these starts were hard to achieve consistently. With only four Forest in the deck, the likelihood of holding an untapped green source to play one of those one-drops on turn one was less than 50%. A more consistent mana base would have 12–14 untapped green sources, but that was not feasible with the dual lands available in 2009 Standard.

A premier threat in the deck was Baneslayer Angel, one of the strongest creatures available in Standard at the time. When left unanswered, it would dominate any damage race. However, it was easily answered by Terminate for just two mana, so many players considered Baneslayer Angel to be poorly positioned in the metagame. While that was a valid viewpoint, Naya Lightsaber did have many other legitimate creature threats that would soak up removal. Woolly Thoctar potentially acted as a Duress for the opponent's Terminate, leaving the coast clear for Baneslayer Angel later on. When you keep jamming enormous creatures, the last one the opponent doesn't deal with kills them. Still, against a wise opponent who would use their removal spells sparingly, Baneslayer Angel was a liability.

Perhaps the biggest surprise came out of the deck's sideboard. The match-up against the popular Jund Midrange deck improved greatly, as Celestial Purge, Goblin Ruinblaster, and Great Sable Stag would all come in, shaving Wild Nacatl, Ranger of Eos, and Path to Exile. This 12-card transformation turned the match-up around, showing the importance of bringing the right sideboard for the metagame and knowing which cards to cut. Indeed, André Coimbra won all of his post-board games against Jund Midrange in the Top 8, etching his name into competitive Magic history

André Coimbra at World Championship 2009

The 2009 Magic World Championship was a memorable event, and I'm already looking forward to this year's edition. Magic World Championship 30 will feature Regional Champions, top finishers from Pro Tours, top online players, and players with the most adjusted Pro Tour match points in the 2023–24 season. The invitation list is almost finalized, with this weekend's Arena Championship 6 awarding the final slots. One way or another, the field is absolutely stacked with talent, so save the date: October 25–27, 2024!