It has been a very tight week in the Pearl division of the MPL, and we're going to need a playoff to find our top 4. So, congratulations to Shota Yasooka (5-2), Shahar Shenhar (5-2), and Matthew Nass (the best of the 4-3 records) who are safely through. Then it's good luck to Andrew Cuneo and Andrea Mengucci (also 4-3 each), who face each other in the play-in for the final slot in the Top 4 playoff. And, finally, commiserations to Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa, Janne Mikkonen, and Brian Braun-Duin, who all finished with 2-5 records.
Let's see how it panned out.
Shota Yasooka – Japan (5-2) Simic Food
In a structure of seven matches, it takes a lot to get comfortable and losing your first match makes it all but impossible. That's how Yasooka started out, falling to Mythic Invitational Champion Andrea Mengucci. Four rounds later he was at 3-2, which was fine, but that still meant he needed successive wins to guarantee a top 4 spot. He fell behind to double World Champion Shahar Shenhar before Nissa, Who Shakes the World took him to 4-2, and then had to rely on the haste feature of Questing Beast to avoid being overrun by Andrew Cuneo's March of the Multitudes in his final match.
Shahar Shenhar – Israel (5-2) Sultai Food
If anyone looked comfortable this week, it was Shenhar. From 2-1 he defeated Matt Nass, Paulo Vitor Damo da Rosa, and Andrew Cuneo on the bounce. But, even that 5-1 record couldn't guarantee top seed. When Yasooka's Nissa took their match for the Japanese Hall of Famer, Shahar needed other results to fall his way to stay in second spot. They did, and that second spot is a huge deal. As No. 3 seed, he would have faced a lower bracket start to the playoffs. Instead, he sits as No. 2 seed and gets another crack at Yasooka to get his playoff going.
Matthew Nass – USA (4-3) Sultai Food
As the No. 3 seed, Matt Nass is the proud owner of the topsy-turvy path to the Top 4 playoff. Win-Loss-Win-Loss-Win-Loss-Win was his somewhat frustrating route but, hey, it's the destination that counts. In a field of Sultai Food mirrors ‘dominant' isn't easy to come by, and Nass wasn't—there were some scrappy matches for sure as he clawed his way through.
Andrew Cuneo – USA (4-3) Selesnya Adventure
So, the playoffs. Good news for Cuneo: He's here! With a 4-3 record! And he's already beaten Andrea Mengucci! Good news for us: We may get to see his Selesnya Adventure deck in action on the show. Bad news for Cuneo: Let's check his three losses. Shota Yasooka (No. 1 seed), Shahar Shenhar (No. 2 seed), and Matt Nass (No. 3 seed).
So if he can get past Mengucci then Nass will be waiting… then Shenhar and Yasooka.
Andrea Mengucci – Italy (4-3) Sultai Food
Good news for Mengucci: He's here! With a 4-3 record! More good news: He beat the No. 1 seed Shota Yasooka. Bad news for Mengucci: In order to get anywhere near Yasooka, he first needs to beat Cuneo, who he lost to in the round robin matches. More bad news: He also lost to Shenhar and Nass. It's not often we get to call Mengucci an underdog, but he's probably the least likely winner of the five this week.
The Path to the Magic World Championship
As the season accelerates towards the end, the individual points coming out of the MPL Splits tend to mean a little less. What really matters is getting the Day Two bye at Mythic Championship VII. Although that certainly doesn't guarantee a Top 8 spot, it's a massive help.
What would that mean for our final five this week? Mengucci is already one of the leaders for a World Championship spot, so has a great chance to secure that in the coming weeks. Shenhar is Top 10 in the MPL, with Yasooka in the Top 20. They need a very deep run in either Richmond or Long Beach to reach the World Championship. As for Nass and Cuneo—both outside the Top 20—survival is key, and, boy oh boy, they would travel to Long Beach in better shape with a Day Two bye in their pocket.
Looking for Clues
So who wins the Cuneo versus Mengucci play-in for the fourth slot? I looked back at their round robin match to pick up some clues. Game 1 saw Mengucci stall early, allowing Cuneo to open with Edgewall Innkeeper into Lovestruck Beast. He was always able to pressure Mengucci's planeswalkers (first Oko, Thief of Crowns then Nissa), and won with a big March of the Multitudes into Flourish. In Game 2, Questing Beast was a big deal, with Castle Ardenvale working hard for Cuneo. Mengucci kept the board fairly even, but was using up his 3/3 ‘"Oko lands" so his Hydroid Krasis for two was more of a "Hydroid Krisis."
Not much to glean then: Mengucci's deck not firing optimally, and Cuneo always staying just ahead. Will that repeat itself in the playoff?
The Metagame
You'll see plenty of Sultai Food on Saturday, accompanied by an appetizer of Selesnya Adventure, and an amuse bouche of Simic Food from Yasooka. Watch out for Brazen Borrower from Yasooka, and Mobilized District too. He's able to play more of a tempo game than the Sultai builds, and has a much smoother mana base—watch for stumbles from the others. Cuneo remains the big question since going wide seems like it's a good plan, but it also seems like he wasn't able to execute it often enough in the round robin.
The Saturday Showdown
So, Cuneo and Mengucci open things up with their play-in to the Top 4. The winner will face Nass in the lower bracket, while Yasooka and Shenhar face off in the top half to see who advances straight to the finals.
Make sure you join our fab five for all the action on twitch.tv/magic at noon PDT / 3 p.m. EDT / 7 p.m. UTC.