Hello and welcome back to Metagame Mentor, your weekly guide to the top decks and latest Constructed developments on the path to the Pro Tour. With just nine days and counting until Pro Tour The Lord of The Rings kicks off at MagicCon: Barcelona, the excitement is palpable. As we gear up for this highly anticipated event, taking place from July 28 to 30, let's delve into the world of Modern. In this article, we'll examine the metagame landscape prior to the tournament, as well as the impact of The Lord of The Rings: Tales of Middle-earth™.

What is Modern?

Modern, a nonrotating 60-card format, was introduced in 2011 and has captured the hearts of Magic: the Gathering players worldwide ever since. It allows expansion sets, core sets, and Modern Horizons sets from Eight Edition forward, with the exception of cards on the banned list. Interestingly, as Eighth Edition was released on July 29, 2003, we can proudly declare during the Pro Tour that Modern is comprised of exactly twenty years of card history. This extensive pool of cards gives Modern its distinctive flavor, boasting intricate card interactions that surpass those found in Pioneer or Standard. The result is a vast array of viable strategies, offering players an exhilarating level of diversity for tournament play.

Modern has been designated as the Constructed format for the upcoming RCQ cycle, heightening its significance in the competitive Magic scene. Pro Tour The Lord of The Rings will be a landmark event, as it marks the return of Modern to the Pro Tour stage after a considerable hiatus. Pro Tours are high-prestige tournaments that invite the best Magic players from all regions to compete for World Championship invites, the coveted first-place trophy, and a staggering $500K in prizes. At the last Modern Pro Tour, the Mythic Championship IV held in Barcelona in July 2019, we witnessed the dominance of the Hogaak archetype. It was there that Thoralf Severin emerged triumphant, piloting the powerful Mono-Green Tron deck, etching his name in Modern history.

Back in 2018–19, the competitive Modern metagame was dominated by linear decks such as Phoenix, Dredge, Storm, Humans, and Scales. These decks often operated independently, with limited interaction between them. It was as if two ships passed each other in the night. However, the arrival of Modern Horizons 2 brought about a shift in this paradigm.

Modern Horizons 2 not only added proactive cards like Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer or Urza's Saga but also introduced the evoke Elementals—Fury, Endurance, Grief, Solitude, and Subtlety. Subsequent sets added additional interactive cards like Boseiju, Who Endures and Leyline Binding. All of these cards injected a greater degree of interactivity into Modern matches, making it easier for players to respond to their opponent's actions. The latest expansion to join the Modern-legal roster, The Lord of The Rings: Tales of Middle-earth™, has added a fresh wave of excitement into the format as well, with a multitude of new cards to explore.

Middle-earth and Modern

The Lord of The Rings may not have the same volume of great cards that Modern Horizons 2 had, but its most important additions are making a huge impact. To show this, I analyzed over 1,400 successful decklists from competitive events since the set's release. Specifically, I used all published Magic Online decklists from scheduled Modern events held from June 23 through July 17 and all Melee decklists with net positive wins from the Grand Open Qualifier Bologna, NRG Series Showdown Chicagoland, and Modern Open at Players Convention Chiba.

Across these decklists, the four most-played cards overall were Lightning Bolt; Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer; Misty Rainforest; and…The One Ring. Indeed, even though Modern is based on 20 years of cards, a new The Lord of The Rings card surged to fourth place, implying that the new set has had an enormous impact. However, the set's impact is not limited to the coveted artifact. The following table reveals the 16 most-played new-to-Modern cards across the decklists I analyzed.

The One Ring

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Given The One Ring's impact on Middle-earth, it's hard to imagine a card better suited as the set's strongest addition to Modern. It's basically Time Walk and Ancestral Recall stapled into a single card, and due to its colorless nature, The One Ring can fit every possible deck.

After preventing you from taking damage and being targeted for a turn, the card allows you to draw three cards for the cost of one life, or six cards for the cost of three life. As you churn through your deck, you can use evoke Elementals or other pitch spells as free spells to defend yourself, transforming card advantage into mana advantage. And once the burden of using The One Ring becomes too great, you can play a new copy, using the legend rule to your advantage by casting the old one into the fire.

Orcish Bowmasters

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Orcish Bowmasters has also quickly become a staple in the Modern format. It take out one-toughness creatures like the ubiquitous Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer, punishes opponents for drawing too many cards with The One Ring, and stops Indomitable Creativity on a Dwarven Mine token. For a two-mana card that can be cast at instant speed, that's a lot of valuable utility. Orcish Bowmasters can also get rid of an opposing Orcish Bowmasters, leading to intricate sequencing in mirror matches.

Delighted Halfling

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Delighted Halfling can ramp into powerful four-mana legends like The One Ring; Omnath, Locus of Creation; or Yawgmoth, Thran Physician. Unlike Birds of Paradise, it's toughness keeps it safe from Orcish Bowmasters or Wrenn and Six, and it allows legendary spells to dodge counterspells, providing a boost against control decks.

These three standout cards from The Lord of The Rings: Tales from Middle-earth™ have been adopted in variety of archetypes and have jointly led to an upheaval of the Modern metagame.

The Modern Metagame

For my data set of over 1,400 successful tournament decklists from the past month, I assigned an archetype label to each deck and awarded a number of points equal to the deck's net wins, i.e., its number of match wins minus losses. For example, a deck that went 5–1 in the Swiss followed by a loss in the quarterfinals was assigned three points. The sum of these numbers for every archetype yields its record-weighted metagame share, which represents its share of total net wins.

In this table, each archetype name hyperlinks to a well-performing, representative decklist. The "Other" category included Mono-Blue Tron, Izzet Breach, Humans, Mono-Black Grief, Belcher, TitanShift, Urza ThopterSword, Rakdos Midrange, Bring to Light, Goryo's Cremator, Mono-Red Midrange, Eldrazi Tron, Asmo Food, Calibrated Blast, Glimpse of Tomorrow, Devoted Druid, and more.

While the Modern metagame had been relatively stable in the first half of 2023, the introduction of The One Ring, Orcish Bowmasters, and other new cards led to enormous shake-ups. The arrows in the table represent the biggest movements compared to my metagame snapshots after Phyrexia: All Will Be One and after March of the Machine. As players adapted to the impact of The Lord of The Rings: Tales from Middle-earth™, Rakdos Evoke, Four-Color Omnath, Living End, Yawgmoth, Mono-Green Tron have been ticking up as they take advantage of new cards, while Izzet Murktide, Indomitable Creativity, Hammer Time, and Rhinos have been trending down.

To explain the reasons behind these developments, whose ripple effects will be felt as players get ready for the Pro Tour, let's take a closer look at the top-tier archetypes one by one, in descending order of their record-weighted metagame share.

The Top 15 Modern Deck Archetypes

To introduce the 15 archetypes with the highest record-weighted metagame share, I've used a decklist aggregation algorithm that takes into account the popularity and performance of individual card choices.

Rakdos Evoke is a midrange deck that can evoke and return Grief of Fury as early as turn one. With Grief, you can discard your opponent's Lightning Bolt or Spell Pierce with the evoke trigger still on the stack, leaving them without an answer when Feign Death or Undying Malice produces a 4/3 menace with another discard attached. This powerful play can leave opponents feeling as though they were scammed out of playing a fair game. With Fury, the combo produces a 4/4 double striker on turn one.

The archetype is known under various names, including Rakdos Evoke, Rakdos Undying, Rakdos Grief, Rakdos Scam, and Rakdos Midrange. The name Rakdos Evoke includes the key mechanic of both Fury and Grief, has no words with explicitly negative connotations, and is understandable for players new to Modern.

Out of all Modern archetypes, Rakdos Evoke has had the best combination of popularity and performance over the past month. With main deck Blood Moon, the deck can punish greedy mana bases and opponents who fail to fetch for basic lands. The addition of Orcish Bowmasters, which has pushed Fable of the Mirror-Breaker to the sideboard, bolstered the archetype further. When opponents rely on The One Ring, sending in a couple of Orcs with bows is a sound strategy.

Four-Color Omnath uses the namesake card Omnath, Locus of Creation in conjunction with fetch lands to trigger it multiple times per turn. Along with efficient interactive spells and powerful planeswalkers, the deck can generate tons of value every turn. Since it has access to four colors, the individual card quality is top-notch.

Four-Color Omnath is one of the best homes for The One Ring and Delighted Halfling, so it has seen a meteoric rise since the release of The Lord of The Rings: Tales from Middle-earth™. Delighted Halfling ramps into turn-two Teferi, Time Raveler, dodging Force of Negation and shutting down cascade decks. It also ramps into a turn-three The One Ring. After the artifact refills your hand, you can use Solitude to convert those cards into an immediate impact on the battlefield. Moreover, Omnath's life gain trigger offsets the burden of using The One Ring, while Teferi, Time Raveler can bounce The One Ring to reset it.

Living End is a combo deck that aims to cycle several creatures and then cascade into Living End, wiping all creatures from the battlefield while returning all the cyclers. The deck has Violent Outburst and Shardless Agent as guaranteed cascade cards, effectively giving the deck eight one-card combo pieces, along with numerous cyclers to draw them consistently. Orcish Bowmasters can be painful when you're cycling, but it will be swept away when Living End resolves. While the strategy is vulnerable to Chalice of the Void; Teferi, Time Raveler; Dauthi Voidwalker; and Leyline of the Void, the deck can fight back with Grief, Force of Negation, and sideboard cards.

From The Lord of The Rings: Tales from Middle-earth™, the deck gained Generous Ent and Oliphaunt, the first one-mana landcycling creatures ever printed. They are basically fetch lands that can be reanimated as huge creatures, making the deck's primary game plan more consistent. Generous Ent can search not only for Stomping Ground or Breeding Pool but also for basic Forest, providing resilience against Blood Moon. While most players replaced Spirebluff Canal and Scalding Tarn, the exact ratio of lands to landcyclers remains contested. The aggregate list has 15 lands, which yields an 88% probability to have at least one land in your opening hand, which is often all you need in this new version.

Izzet Murktide combines cheap cantrips, efficient interaction, and powerful threats. The card advantage and velocity provided by Expressive Iteration quickly turns Murktide Regent into a two-mana 8/8 flier. The density of card draw also means that you'll see your sideboard cards more frequently, improving most matchups post-board.

Since the release of The Lord of The Rings, Izzet Murktide has trended down. It did not gain any relevant new cards, while The One Ring's protection is particularly potent against large creatures like Murktide Regent. Even worse, Orcish Bowmasters is at its best against Izzet Murktide. Orcish Bowmasters can snipe Dragon's Rage Channeler and Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer, and its accompanying Orc Army will grow with every Consider, Mishra's Bauble, or Ledger Shredder trigger. In the face of this powerful new two-drop, Izzet Murktide players have struggled to adapt, although the strategy remains popular.

Yawgmoth combines undying creatures and Yawgmoth, Thran Physician to generate card advantage and achieve infinite combos. When it's on the battlefield, an infinite loop is possible alongside two undying creatures, one with a +1/+1 counter and another without. When Yawgmoth sacrifices the counterless creature, it returns with a +1/+1 counter. The other receives a -1/-1 counter, which cancels out against its +1/+1 counter. This can be repeated to draw lots of cards, and Zulaport Cutthroat wins the game on the spot, even if the opponent has protection from everything.

Yawgmoth has put up excellent results after adopting Delighted Halfling and Orcish Bowmasters. Delighted Halfling is far better than Birds of Paradise because it's not as vulnerable to Wrenn and Six and because it helps you beat Counterspell. Orcish Bowmasters creates a token, which makes it easier to cast an early Chord of Calling for Yawgmoth, Thran Physician. Subsequently, Yawgmoth can convert the 1/1s into new cards, or they can be fed to the -2 ability on Grist, the Hunger Tide. Because these new cards fit so well into the deck, and even The One Ring is deserving of a few slots, the Yawgmoth archetype has become more prominent in Modern recently.

Mono-Green Tron is a ramp deck centered around the "Urzatron"–Urza's Mine, Urza's Power Plant, and Urza's Tower. This powerful trio of lands was first dubbed the "Urzatron" in the 90s as a reference to the Voltron TV series, in which robots combine to become stronger. Together, the lands enable you to ramp into powerful cards like Ugin, the Spirit Dragon or Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger ahead of time. A turn three Karn Liberated is also enormously powerful, although many players have cut this once-essential planeswalker to make room for The One Ring.

The introduction of The One Ring has been a major boost for Mono-Green Tron. It fits perfectly into a deck that can generate a lot of colorless mana and wants to bridge towards its powerful late game. Buying an extra turn is particularly valuable when your land drops tap for two or three mana. Thanks to Karn, the Great Creator's ability to grab it from your sideboard, the deck effectively runs seven copies of The One Ring in the main deck. Another reason for Mono-Green Tron's rise is the resilience it has against opposing Rings—Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger still will go over the top while Karn, the Great Creator prevents opposing Rings from being activated. In addition, Four-Color Omnath and Living End are traditionally good matchups for Tron, so the metagame has become more favorable overall.

Indomitable Creativity is a combo deck that aims to put Archon of Cruelty onto the battlefield by using the namesake card in combination with Dwarven Mine tokens. The deck's ability to use any fetch land to grab Dwarven Mine makes it acts like a one-card combo. The most prominent version uses all five colors for Leyline Binding. Note that if you wait to exile a freshly cast The One Ring until your opponent activates it, then no new burden counters would be added, which means that no cards would be drawn. While such patience results in a mana-positive one-for-one trade, the protection trigger remains problematic.

Since the release of The Lord of The Rings: Tales from Middle-earth™, the previously dominant Indomitable Creativity deck has fallen hard. It did not gain any cards of note other than Reprieve, which is basically a Remand that ignores the uncountability clause of Delighted Halfling. Meanwhile, Living End and Orcish Bowmasters will snipe the 1/1 Dwarf tokens, and the protection from The One Ring annuls the trigger of Archon of Cruelty. Perhaps other win conditions like Atraxa, Grand Unifier; Sundering Titan; Emrakul, the Aeons Torn; and/or Serra's Emissary could alleviate the deck's weakness to The One Ring, but Indomitable Creativity players will have to adjust to the new landscape.

Burn embodies the philosophy of fire. The goal is to unleash a flurry of damage as quickly as possible, with an ideal opening hand featuring a turn one Goblin Guide, turn two double Lava Spike, and turn three triple Lightning Bolt for a staggering 21 damage. A recent development is the adoption of Roiling Vortex over Eidolon of the Great Revel in the main deck. It helps against Living End, prevents the life gain on Omnath, Locus of Creation, and punishes opponents for evoking free Elementals.

Burn has been a staple of the Modern format since its inception, preying on decks with painful fetch-shock mana bases. While opponents can use The One Ring to protect themselves from damage temporarily, the burden of life loss can prove deadly against Burn. Unloading several instant-speed burn spells the moment an opponent's protection wears off is a good strategy to beat The One Ring. Alternatively, keep in mind that protection prevents damage, so a Burn player can Skullcrack themselves and attack with creatures to deal lethal combat damage on a protection turn.

Hammer Time treats the metagame like a nail. It avoids the enormous equip cost on Colossus Hammer with the primary help of Sigarda's Aid or Puresteel Paladin. A turn-two kill is even possible with the right opening hand: Sigarda's Aid and Ornithopter on turn one, followed by double Colossus Hammer on turn two. However, turn three or turn four kills are more realistic and common, especially with cards such as Urza's Saga and Stoneforge Mystic finding the Hammer. As an Urza's Saga deck, it's weak to Blood Moon, Force of Vigor, Engineered Explosives.

From The Lord of The Rings: Tales from Middle-earth™, Forge Anew has been a useful new addition to the main deck. Equippers were always the bottleneck for Hammer Time, as they generally struggled to find ways to equip for free. Despite the addition of this synergistic new card, Hammer Time has struggled in the new Modern metagame. The protection from The One Ring completely stalls you for a turn, and Orcish Bowmasters is deadly against Esper Sentinel. Moreover, Four-Color Omnath and Yawgmoth have traditionally been bad matchups, so the resurgence of these decks poses a challenge. Due to all of these factors, Hammer Time has been trending down.

Amulet Titan is an intricate ramp deck that exploits the synergy between Amulet of Vigor and bounce lands like Simic Growth Chamber to power out Primeval Titan. After you resolve Primeval Titan, there are a variety of ways to seal the game. With Amulet of Vigor in play, Primeval Titan can grab Slayers' Stronghold and Boros Garrison and attack right away. If Dryad of the Ilysian Grove is on the battlefield, you can fetch Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle and burn your opponent to a crisp. Even if the opponent has a spot removal spell, the deck can still have a way out by picking up Tolaria West with Simic Growth Chamber, transmuting it into Summoner's Pact, and grabbing another Primeval Titan. Mastering this deck requires a deep understanding of the various lines of play available, making it a challenging. but ultimately rewarding. endeavor.

As a big mana deck, it can go over the top of opposing Rings, and it has even adopted The One Ring itself. The legendary artifact can be cast as early as turn two or three, and it finds the required resources for a combo kill. In case the burden of using it becomes too great, The Mycosynth Gardens can become a copy, allowing you to use the legend rule to get rid of the old one. Moreover, The One Ring can be cast when the opponent controls Blood Moon, allowing you to sift through your deck until you find an answer to your opponent's counterplay.

Rhinos has a straightforward game plan: cast Shardless Agent or Violent Outburst on turn three to cascade into Crashing Footfalls, unleashing a horde of 4/4 Rhinos to quickly overpower your opponent. Despite the cascade restriction, the deck contains a surprising amount of cheap plays that skirt this restriction, including Fire // Ice, Force of Negation, Dead // Gone, and Mystical Dispute.

Rhinos did not gain any new cards of note from The Lord of The Rings: Tales from Middle-earth™, and it has struggled in the face of The One Ring, which gives opponents an entire turn of not taking Rhino damage. The rising sideboard popularity of Chalice of the Void is also an issue. As a result, Rhinos has dwindled in the recent month. Nevertheless, I love the two copies of Commandeer in the sideboard of this aggregate list, as it's a sweet way to steal your opponent's copy of The One Ring.

Grinding Breach can win in various ways. One option is to combo off by repeatedly milling yourself. This involves sacrificing Mishra's Bauble or Mox Amber to Grinding Station then recasting the zero-mana artifact via Underworld Breach. You loop until you win the game with Thassa's Oracle. But if you don't draw the combo, then you can also win a fair game by attacking with Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer or Urza's Saga tokens. Earlier this year, many players were cutting combo cards to focus more on the fair game plans, but that trend had reversed after the release of The One Ring.

Thassa's Oracle can win the game even if the opponent has protection from everything, while Haywire Mite is a tutorable, recurrable answer to an opposing Ring. In addition, Grinding Breach is a great home for The One Ring itself. Once you find two copies, you can play one from the graveyard with Emry, Lurker of the Loch, bin the other one to the legend rule, and stay protected turn after turn. Moreover, Grinding Station can sacrifice The One Ring if the burden of using it becomes too great.

Grixis Shadow is a midrange deck that uses Death's Shadow to win the game. The namesake creature punishes your opponent for attacking you, and an assortment of fetch lands, shocklands, and life loss from Thoughtseize allows you to bring your life total below 13 at will. Drown in the Loch and Spell Pierce can prevent an opposing The One Ring from resolving, while Underworld Breach can provide a lot of value by rebuying Mishra's Bauble, especially when Dragon's Rage Channeler fills up your graveyard along the way.

Orcish Bowmasters is a great addition to any black midrange deck, and Grixis Shadow is no different. It has largely replaced Ledger Shredder. There's even the additional upside of pinging yourself to boost Death's Shadow, turning Orcish Bowmasters into a combat trick.

Mono-Black Coffers uses Cabal Coffers alongside Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth to produce large amounts of mana early on. The mana can be sunk into an enormous March of Wretched Sorrow or into powerful artifacts that Karn, the Great Creator can grab from the sideboard. With Field of Ruin and Demolition Field to destroy nonbasic lands, Mono-Green Tron or Amulet Titan can be kept in check.

Like Mono-Green Tron, Mono-Black Coffers effectively has access to seven copies of The One Ring, and it can convert an extra land drop into two or three extra mana. Moreover, Sheoldred, the Apocalypse is amazing in this deck—it mitigates the life loss of your own Ring while punishing your opponents for drawing too many cards with theirs—and March of Wretched Sorrow can offset the burden further. Hence, Mono-Black Coffers is one of the best possible homes for the legendary artifact.

Azorius Control includes all the hallmarks of a traditional control deck: spot removal, countermagic, card draw, sweepers, and planeswalkers. The most prominent Modern versions have incorporated Leyline Binding which, with the help of Zagoth Triome and Raugrin Triome, can becomes a one-mana removal spell. These Triomes also give a boost to Prismatic Ending, making them an integral part of the deck's strategy.

Although Azorius Control has not gained new toys from The Lord of The Rings: Tales from Middle-earth™, Narset, Parter of Veils has returned to the main deck to prevent opponents from drawing too many cards with The One Ring. The addition of Blood Moon to the sideboard, which can be cast off Raugrin Triome and Steam Vents, may catch opponents by surprise as well.

Conclusion

The Lord of The Rings: Tales from Middle-earth™ has shaken up the competitive Modern metagame, and the impact will be felt at the Pro Tour in Barcelona. The One Ring, given its protection clause and a card draw engine, is a powerful addition to Modern that fits in a large variety of decks. The question is not whether The One Ring will show up in Modern, but rather how many copies will make Top 8 and whether we will see a Ring go up to six or seven burden counters on camera.

However, the card is not unbeatable. There are plenty of good answers, some of which were highlighted in this article, and we'll surely see more creative options at the Pro Tour. One of the most prominent cards that line up well against The One Ring is Orcish Bowmasters, which has created an interesting dynamic in the format. But when it seemed that the format was shaping up to be a battle between Orcs and Rings…why not both?

This Dimir Control deck seemingly came out of nowhere, but it took down a Modern Challenge last weekend and posted great results in the other weekend Challenges on Magic Online. It features the best cards from the new set, along with a lot of permission and spot removal to take a control role. Lórien Revealed provides flexibility and a way to fix the mana under Blood Moon, while Sauron's Ransom acts as the second coming of Fact or Fiction. With so many cards from the new set, it's almost a The Lord of The Rings: Tales from Middle-earth™ theme deck, and it shows that anything could happen at the Pro Tour.

All in all, I can't wait to see what the Pro Tour metagame will look like and how the best players in the world will use the new cards. With the format in constant upheaval and evolution ever since the release of The Lord of The Rings: Tales from Middle-earth™, I'm sure that there will be plenty of surprises. I haven't even had the chance to address new decks like Samwise Gamgee Combo or Mono-Black Grief in this article yet—Modern is just too diverse! Expect the unexpected as the deck choices get revealed in one week from now.

To follow the event live, tune in on July 28–30! As described in more detail in the viewer's guide, nearly 280 of the world's best players will compete for $500,00 in prizes, several World Championship invites, and the prestigious first-place trophy. The formats are The Lord of The Rings: Tales from Middle-earth™ Booster Draft in the morning on Friday and Saturday, followed by Modern for five rounds afterward each of those days. Modern is also the Top 8 format on Sunday. Don't miss the live video coverage on twitch.tv/magic!