Hello and welcome back to Metagame Mentor, the weekly column in which I highlight the decks to beat and the latest Constructed developments on the path to the Pro Tour.
Today, to support the three possible Constructed formats for Regional Championship Qualifiers (RCQs), I'll showcase the current metagame in Pioneer, Modern, and Standard. These overviews can help acquaint yourself with the state of these formats right before the tabletop release of The Brothers' War on Friday November 18.
Last Weekend's Biggest Events
But as always, I'll begin by highlighting last weekend's biggest events.
Got those trophies at the @NRGSeries 10k team trial with my sister @SaralynMC and her husband Aren. No matter what @RossHunneds @CoreyBaumeister or @tiddypills tells me I will never cut my hall @SpiderSpaceMTG did come through with Jegantha tech though. pic.twitter.com/7ivqeZjzre
— Ben McKinnon-Duggins (@bduggs44) November 6, 2022
Congrats to Nathaniel Wilson, our Pioneer $5k Trial winner at #NRGFWA piloting Selesnya Angels! pic.twitter.com/xMpOb0fCe7
— NRG Series (@NRGSeries) November 7, 2022
The NRG Series Fort Wayne Trial Weekend featured several RCQs that awarded invitations for the second Regional Championship, to be held in the first quarter of 2023. It's always great to see the champions pose with their trophies!
Qualifiers for this second Regional Championship will run through December 18, 2022. To find qualifier events around you, you can use the store and event locator with the filter "Regional Championship Qualifier" (in regions where stores use that filter) and/or visit your regional organizer's website.
While qualifiers for the second Regional Championships are underway, the very first Regional Championships are coming up in little over a week! More on that at the end of this article.
Standard Metagame Snapshot
Standard is a rotating format that currently allows expansion sets from Innistrad: Midnight Hunt forward.
To provide a metagame snapshot, I used all Magic Online decklists from Standard Preliminary, Standard Qualifier, Standard Showcase Challenge, and Standard Challenge events held between October 19 and November 7. In addition, I used top decklists from Magic World Championship XXVIII, The Pizza Box: Standard Slice, Nagoya Premium RCQ, and Castelo RCQ. The majority of these tournaments took place after the World Championship decklists were revealed.
By assigning to each deck a number of points equal to its number of match wins minus its number of match losses, I derived the following record-weighted metagame breakdown. It may be interpreted as a winner's metagame that you can expect to see at the top tables. Archetype names hyperlink to a well-performing decklist closest to the aggregate of the archetype.
Archetype | Record-Weighted Metagame Share |
---|---|
1. Grixis Midrange | 33.4% |
2. Esper Midrange | 16.9% |
3. Mono-Blue Tempo | 12.2% |
4. Jund Midrange | 7.4% |
5. Izzet Tempo | 5.6% |
6. Esper Legends | 5.6% |
7. Rakdos Midrange | 3.2% |
8. Jund Reanimator | 1.9% |
9. Rakdos Sacrifice | 1.9% |
10. Boros Reanimator | 1.5% |
11. Mardu Midrange | 1.4% |
12. Five-color Humans | 1.1% |
13. Jeskai Midrange | 0.8% |
14. Orzhov Midrange | 0.8% |
15. Naya Humans | 0.8% |
Other | 5.4% |
The most-played nonland cards were
Standard has been in a constant state of flux over the past month. At first, after the ban of
Yet the World Championship also showed that Esper Midrange could be beaten, as Izzet Tempo, Mono-Blue Tempo, and Grixis Midrange all posted positive records against it. We've been seeing more
Nathan Steuer not only confirmed that he is the best Magic player in the world right now but also showed that Grixis Midrange was the best way to tackle the October Standard metagame. Relying on the power of
While we saw Grixis Midrange, Esper Midrange, Mono-Blue Tempo, Jund Midrange, and Izzet Tempo at the World Championship, the sixth archetype in today's Standard breakdown is a fresh development.
Esper Legends is fueled by
With enough legendary creatures to reduce the channel cost,
The importance of lands is worth bearing in mind as The Brothers' War enters the format. The new set releases online on Tuesday November 15 and worldwide on Friday November 18. For Standard, I expect that the most important additions will be the nonbasic lands.
The set introduces many powerful spells as well, of course. In particular, the dream of melding Urza, Lord Protector; Mishra, Claimed by Gix; or Titania, Voice of Gaea should get your brewing gears turning. But in the end, mana bases form the foundation of a format, and the consistency at which you can cast your spells or use your mana is the main driver of a deck's competitive viability. Since The Brothers' War introduced many powerful nonbasic lands, I think it will have a large impact on the format, and it'll be exciting to see how Standard will develop.
Pioneer Metagame Snapshot
Pioneer is a nonrotating format based on expansion sets and core sets from Return to Ravnica forward.
To provide a metagame snapshot, I used all Magic Online decklists from Pioneer Preliminary and Pioneer Challenge events held between October 19 and November 7. In addition, I used top decklists from the GIGA Pioneer at Axion Now's The Gathering, RCQ at Contra Hechizo, RCQ at RNG Games, RCQ at CM Games Cedar Bluff, and NRG Series $5K Trial Fort Wayne.
Archetype | Record-Weighted Metagame Share |
---|---|
1. Green Devotion | 16.5% |
2. Izzet Phoenix | 13.4% ↑↑ |
3. Rakdos Midrange | 11.6% ↓↓ |
4. Mono-White Humans | 6.5% |
5. Azorius Control | 5.5% |
6. Bant Spirits | 4.5% |
7. Keruga Fires | 4.1% ↑↑ |
8. Lotus Field | 4.0% |
9. Dimir Control | 3.9% ↑↑ |
10. Rakdos Sacrifice | 3.4% |
11. Abzan Greasefang | 3.2% ↓↓ |
12. Enigmatic Incarnation | 3.2% |
13. Gruul Stompy | 2.1% |
14. Mono-Blue Spirits | 1.5% |
15. Zombies | 1.3% |
Other | 15.1% |
The most-played nonland cards were
In the table, I've added up and down arrows to signify the biggest changes compared to last month's Pioneer metagame roundup. As you can see, Izzet Phoenix has been on the rise, whereas Rakdos Midrange and Abzan Greasefang took a plunge.
Yet the biggest news is the re-emergence of two archetypes: Keruga Fires and Dimir Control. They were not a significant part of last month's competitive metagame, but they have risen up in the ranks in recent weeks. If you plan to compete in an upcoming Pioneer event, then it's useful to be aware of these decks.
Keruga Fires is built around
After Dominaria United introduced
Hall of Famer Gabriel Nassif started a trend by brewing a Dimir Control deck with
The Brothers' War will surely also have an impact on Pioneer. Besides the lands—
Another interesting new option is
Modern Metagame Snapshot
Modern is a nonrotating format based on expansion sets, core sets, and Modern Horizons sets from Eight Edition forward.
To provide a metagame snapshot, I used all Magic Online decklists from Modern Preliminary and Modern Challenge events held between October 19 and November 7. In addition, I used top decklists from the GIGA Modern at Axion Now's The Gathering, Swiss Magic Masters 2022, NRG Series $5K Trial Newark, and Magic 30 Beta Draft Championship.
Archetype | Record-Weighted Metagame Share |
---|---|
1. Izzet Murktide | 12.5% ↑↑ |
2. Indomitable Creativity | 10.7% |
3. Hammer Time | 8.8% |
4. Jeskai Breach | 7.2% |
5. Four-Color Omnath | 5.5% |
6. Rakdos Undying | 5.4% |
7. Rhinos | 4.1% |
8. Burn | 3.6% |
9. Amulet Titan | 3.5% |
10. Yawgmoth | 3.0% |
11. Mono-Green Tron | 2.8% |
12. Merfolk | 2.8% |
13. Azorius Control | 2.6% |
14. Domain Zoo | 2.5% |
15. Living End | 2.4% |
Other | 22.6% |
The most-played nonland cards were
The metagame has not seen major upheavals after the ban of
Izzet Murktide remains a good deck choice in Modern, with game against the field. It combines cheap cantrips, efficient interactive spells, and the best one- or two-mana threats in the Izzet colors to quickly overpower everyone.
The main development is that most lists have started to run
Compared to the 80-card lists of yore, typical cuts have been
Modern is a large format, so new expansion sets are unlikely to cause enormous changes. However, Third Path Iconoclast has my attention.
Another thing that is always worth doing when evaluating new sets for Modern is to look for one-mana cards with unique effects, as they might be worth including in decks with
Looking Ahead
This weekend, November 11-13, highlights include the Black Lotus Prerelease at the Magic Summit and the $30K Pioneer tournament at SCG CON Philadelphia.
Subsequently, the first Regional Championship season will begin! The (tentative) schedule is as follows:
- November 19-20: U.S.A., Europe/Middle East/Africa, Brazil
- November 26-27: Japan/Korea, Australia/New Zealand, East Canada, Southeast Asia
- December 3-4: Chinese Taipei, South America, China
- December 10-11: West Canada
- December 17-18: Mexico/Central America/Caribbean
Format: For these Regional Championships, the format is Pioneer, and The Brothers' War will be legal.
Decklists: Regional Championships will use open decklists, to be submitted by competitors on MTG Melee on the day before the event starts. Exact details and timing are provided by the local organizer. Once the event gets underway, decklists will become publicly available on MTG Melee.
Prizes: Besides monetary prizes, top players from each Regional Championship—the exact number is region-dependent—qualify for the first Pro Tour, to be held at Magic Con: Philadelphia on February 17–19. Additionally, all winners will be invited to the Magic World Championship XXIX in 2023, as well as the runners-up from U.S.A., Japan, and Europe.
I'm excited to see the next step in premier play take shape! Throughout this Regional Championship season, my column will have you covered with all the Pioneer metagame developments and event summaries every Thursday.