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Metagame Mentor: Standard Win Rates and Lessons from Magic World Championship 31

December 11, 2025
Frank Karsten

Hello, and welcome back to Metagame Mentor, your weekly guide to the top decks and latest Constructed developments from Magic's most prestigious events. Magic World Championship 31 delivered an electrifying Top 8, spotlighting breakout decks, some of the game's most legendary players, and intensely contested matches. This tournament revealed just how dramatically Standard has evolved, setting the pace for an engaging season ahead as we look toward Magic Spotlight: The Avatar in early January and the continuation of the current Standard round of Regional Championship Qualifiers.

While the World Championship measured skill across both Limited and Standard, today's article will focus exclusively on the Standard rounds, examining win rates and standout decks from the tournament. By setting aside the draft portion and looking beyond just the Top 8, we can capture a broader perspective on the key Standard lessons from the event as a whole.

Congratulations to Seth Manfield!

Seth Manfield


Before diving into the decks, let me extend my congratulations to Team TCGplayer's Seth Manfield, who clinched his second World Championship trophy and further cemented his status as one of the game's all-time greats. Manfield is now the third player in Magic's history, alongside Javier Dominguez and Shahar Shenhar, to claim the title of World Champion twice.

His path to the top was far from straightforward. Manfield opened Magic World Championship 31 with a discouraging 0-2 stumble in the draft rounds. But with more than two decades of competitive Magic experience, having won the 2015 World Championship, Pro Tour Ixalan in 2017, and Pro Tour Murders at Karlov Manor in 2024, this Magic Hall of Fame member is no stranger to adversity. From that rocky 0-2 start, he went on an astonishing 10-0 surge to secure his Top 8 berth. And on Sunday, he posted a flawless 9-0 record in games with wins over Ken Yukuhiro, Derrick Davis, and Akira Shibata.

Manfield won a $100,000 cash prize, the stunning Black Lotus trophy, and the honor of having his likeness immortalized on a future Magic card. Every Top 8 competitor earned invitations to each Pro Tour and the World Championship in 2026, as well as a generous slice of the $1,000,000 prize pool.

7 Island 4 Gran-Gran 4 Stormchaser's Talent 3 Boomerang Basics 1 Agna Qel'a 4 Combustion Technique 2 Mountain 3 Iroh's Demonstration 4 Multiversal Passage 4 Firebending Lesson 4 Monument to Endurance 4 Accumulate Wisdom 3 Abandon Attachments 4 Riverpyre Verge 1 It'll Quench Ya! 4 Artist's Talent 4 Spirebluff Canal 2 Negate 1 Annul 1 Torch the Tower 1 Iroh's Demonstration 1 Abandon Attachments 1 Abrade 1 Pyroclasm 2 Quantum Riddler 2 Soul-Guide Lantern 1 It'll Quench Ya! 1 Spell Pierce 1 Broadside Barrage

Izzet Lessons, filled with commons and uncommons from Magic: The Gathering® | Avatar: The Last Airbender™, was the breakout deck of the tournament. The deck is built around a dense suite of Lesson cards, including various efficient removal spells, making it easy to put three of them in the graveyard. With Gran-Gran on the battlefield, this effectively turns Accumulate Wisdom into Ancestral Recall and Combustion Technique into Swords to Plowshares. It was the most played deck and one of the best-performing decks in the field, culminating in an Izzet Lessons mirror match in the finals.

Across the Swiss rounds, Izzet Lessons posted a strong 57% win rate (excluding mirrors, draws, and byes), yet there was a notable performance gap depending on the inclusion of Artist's Talent and Monument to Endurance. Out of the 23 Izzet Lessons decks at the tournament, 15 leveraged this engine, including the entirety of Team TCGplayer and finalist Akira Shibata. Collectively, they achieved a commanding 61% win rate against the rest of the field. By contrast, Izzet Lessons decks without Monument to Endurance managed only a 47% win rate. Especially in the pseudo-mirror, the difference was stark: Monument versions went 7-2 versus non-Monument counterparts.

These numbers underscore the sheer potency of the Lessons engine and the Monument to Endurance package—an engine powered by plentiful discard outlets such as Gran-Gran, Agna Qel'a, Abandon Attachments, and most crucially Artist's Talent.

The Standard Win Rates at Magic World Championship 31

The metagame breakdown highlighted the popularity of Izzet Lessons, Temur Otters, Bant Airbending, and Izzet Looting. Below, you'll find a table with each archetype's non-mirror, non-draw, non-bye match record and win rate from the Standard Swiss rounds. Each archetype name links to a representative sample decklist for those interested in exploring specific builds.

Archetype Number of Players Record and Win Rate
Golgari Dragons 1 6-2-0 (75.0%)
Dimir Midrange 2 11-5-0 (68.8%)
Mono-Red Aggro 3 10-6-0 (62.5%)
Sultai Reanimator 6 25-16-0 (61.0%)
Jeskai Control 10 33-23-3 (58.9%)
Izzet Prowess 9 27-20-0 (57.4%)
Simic Otters 1 4-3-1 (57.1%)
Izzet Lessons 23 65-49-0 (57.0%)
Golgari Ouroboroid 5 15-13-0 (53.6%)
Orzhov Demons 1 2-2-0 (50.0%)
Temur Otters 20 43-55-0 (43.9%)
Dimir Bounce 3 7-9-0 (43.8%)
Izzet Looting 14 22-30-0 (42.3%)
Simic Ouroboroid 7 12-19-0 (38.7%)
Bant Airbending 16 26-47-0 (35.6%)
Jeskai Artifacts 4 6-13-0 (31.6%)
Boros Mobilize 1 1-3-0 (25.0%)

The impact of Magic: The Gathering | Avatar: The Last Airbender rippled across the tournament. While much of the pre-event hype centered on Badgermole Cub—and it did indeed become one of the weekend's most played new cards—its performance was disastrous. Decks featuring at least one Badgermole Cub won merely 39% of their matches against non-Cub decks in the Standard Swiss rounds. Its two primary homes, Temur Otters and Bant Airbending, fared especially poorly against Izzet Lessons, whose suite of efficient red removal spells effortlessly kept those vulnerable green mana-producing creatures in check.

The Standard Decks and Players with Six or More Wins

For reference, here's a list of all decks with at least six Standard non-bye wins at Magic World Championship 31, sorted by their combined Swiss and Top 8 non-bye record in descending order of win rate:

Next, let's take a closer look at the top-performing decks, explore the advantages they bring to the table, and cover the specific pressure points they can exploit against Izzet Lessons.

Golgari Dragons

4 Swamp 3 Bloomvine Regent 1 Ygra, Eater of All 4 Restless Cottage 4 Shared Roots 1 The Soul Stone 2 Underground Mortuary 4 Scavenger Regent 6 Forest 4 Icetill Explorer 4 Fabled Passage 2 Urgent Necropsy 2 Bitter Triumph 2 Wastewood Verge 2 Ba Sing Se 4 Esper Origins 2 Disruptive Stormbrood 2 Soulstone Sanctuary 4 Caustic Exhale 3 Overlord of the Balemurk 2 Reclamation Sage 3 Torpor Orb 3 Scavenging Ooze 3 Duress 3 Day of Black Sun 1 Ygra, Eater of All

Among all archetypes, Golgari Dragons achieved the highest overall win rate, with Hall of Famer Ben Stark posting an impressive 6-2 in the Standard rounds. Stark, who previously pioneered the Orzhov Pixie deck that evolved into a top-tier Standard deck this year, has a reputation for building lists that are worth a closer look. His latest creation exploits Caustic Exhale as a hyper-efficient one-mana removal spell, while the Adventure half of Scavenger Regent acts as a one-sided board wipe. Combined with a self-mill angle and Shared Roots—a powerful new ramp effect from Magic: The Gathering | Avatar: The Last Airbender—the deck hums with power and synergy.

Stark went 2-1 against Izzet Lessons across the weekend, and his decklist showcases two effective approaches for gaining an edge in that matchup. The first is access to enchantment or artifact removal to dismantle Artist's Talent and Monument to Endurance. To that end, Golgari Dragons runs Disruptive Stormbrood in the main deck, backed by Reclamation Sage in the sideboard. The second angle is graveyard hate, such as Scavenging Ooze, to exile lessons and reduce the effectiveness of Gran-Gran and Accumulate Wisdom. These tools in black and green, along with options like Annul or Rest in Peace for other decks and other colors, can meaningfully slow Izzet Lessons down and tilt the game in your favor.

Dimir Midrange

1 Stab 4 Swamp 4 Floodpits Drowner 3 Kaito, Bane of Nightmares 2 Phantom Interference 2 Intimidation Tactics 2 Restless Reef 4 Island 4 Multiversal Passage 1 Nowhere to Run 1 Bitter Triumph 4 Enduring Curiosity 3 Shoot the Sheriff 2 Tragic Trajectory 4 Spyglass Siren 4 Watery Grave 3 Soulstone Sanctuary 4 Preacher of the Schism 4 Deep-Cavern Bat 4 Gloomlake Verge 1 Kaito, Bane of Nightmares 2 Vren, the Relentless 2 Tishana's Tidebinder 2 Duress 1 Tragic Trajectory 4 Day of Black Sun 2 Spider-Sense 1 Stab

After the bans of Vivi Ornitier, Proft's Eidetic Memory, and Screaming Nemesis, Dimir Midrange was widely expected to be one of the most imposing forces in Standard. Yet the deck gained virtually nothing from Magic: The Gathering | Avatar: The Last Airbender, and only two competitors ultimately registered it for Magic World Championship 31. Still, with Kenta Masukado's 6-2 finish and Max Rappaport's 5-3 performance in the Standard rounds, Dimir Midrange quietly posted one of the stronger win rates of the tournament and remains a formidable Standard contender.

Interestingly, the two Dimir Midrange pilots went a combined 4-1 against Izzet Lessons at the World Championship—a result that surprised me at first. On paper, Izzet Lessons has several efficient answers. Firebending Lesson removes two-mana threats like Deep-Cavern Bat for just a single mana, and Combustion Technique is one of the cleanest ways to exile Enduring Curiosity. Meanwhile, Dimir's Shoot the Sheriff lines up poorly against Stormchaser's Talent.

What the Dimir deck does have, however, is Kaito, Bane of Nightmares. Izzet Lessons is notoriously weak to planeswalkers; its removal suite doesn't touch them, and trying to pressure one with Otter tokens is an uphill battle against a deck filled with creature removal. This makes planeswalkers a surprisingly potent axis of attack. Elspeth, Storm Slayer and Ral, Crackling Wit may offer solid alternatives for other decks, but Kaito, Bane of Nightmares shines as a more aggressive and punishing option. It's the core of Dimir Midrange's game plan in the matchup, and it may be effective enough against Izzet Lessons.

Mono-Red Aggro

4 Lightning Strike 4 Razorkin Needlehead 2 Shock 4 Burnout Bashtronaut 4 Emberheart Challenger 4 Burst Lightning 4 Rockface Village 19 Mountain 2 Ojer Axonil, Deepest Might 4 Hired Claw 1 Kellan, Planar Trailblazer 4 Full Bore 4 Nova Hellkite 4 Magebane Lizard 2 Torpor Orb 2 Twisted Fealty 4 Sunspine Lynx 1 Shock 2 Iroh's Demonstration

Only three players brought Mono-Red Aggro to Magic World Championship 31: Percy Fang, William Araujo, and Quinn Tonole. However, all are known devotees of the archetype, with excellent red aggro results throughout the season. Their combined 10-6 Standard record at the World Championship is therefore a bit tricky to interpret in terms of the deck's overall place in the emerging metagame, but taken at face value, it's an excellent win rate.

Quinn Tonole, a Mono-Red expert, was the lone pilot to advance to Day Two, ultimately posting a 5-3 record with a list whose only new addition was two copies of Iroh's Demonstration in the sideboard. Meanwhile, Percy Fang and William Araujo experimented with fresh options such as Zhao, the Moon Slayer and The Legend of Roku. While their Standard results were solid, their drafts unfortunately didn't cooperate.

In theory, Mono-Red should struggle against the efficient removal suite of Izzet Lessons, but Tonole's list leans on four copies of Magebane Lizard in the sideboard to punish a strategy overloaded with card-draw spells. To protect it from Combustion Technique, the deck already runs Full Bore, and if you were to add Soul-Guide Lantern to the sideboard as additional protection, it's entirely plausible that Mono-Red Aggro can craft a coherent game plan against Izzet Lessons.

Sultai Reanimator

1 Swamp 2 Willowrush Verge 2 Underground Mortuary 1 Hedge Maze 2 Harvester of Misery 4 Awaken the Honored Dead 4 Bringer of the Last Gift 4 Breeding Pool 1 Island 3 Wastewood Verge 1 Cavern of Souls 3 Blooming Marsh 3 Ardyn, the Usurper 4 Superior Spider-Man 4 Bitter Triumph 4 Broodspinner 1 Multiversal Passage 1 Undercity Sewers 3 Analyze the Pollen 4 Oblivious Bookworm 3 Watery Grave 1 Terror of the Peaks 4 Overlord of the Balemurk 1 Webstrike Elite 3 Deep-Cavern Bat 4 Intimidation Tactics 1 Urgent Necropsy 2 Glarb, Calamity's Augur 1 Cavern of Souls 1 Disruptive Stormbrood 2 Soul-Guide Lantern

Sultai Reanimator is a graveyard-centric combo deck that intends to fill the graveyard while digging for Superior Spider-Man, which aims to enter as a copy of Bringer of the Last Gift to effectively end the game on the spot. Team Moriyama Japan took the deck to an impressive 25-16 record against the rest of the field (i.e., a strong 61% win rate) with Ken Yukuhiro leading the charge. The champion of Pro Tour Magic: The Gathering®—FINAL FANTASY™ was the only Top 8 competitor without Stormchaser's Talent or Boomerang Basics in his list, and his excellent results throughout the season earned him the 2025 Player of the Year title.

Across the event, Sultai Reanimator went 6-4 against Izzet Lessons, and that result feels like a realistic reflection of a favorable matchup. In Game 1, Izzet Lessons applies little pressure and has virtually no answer to the deck's Living Death-esque combo. Moreover, Yukuhiro's Awaken the Honored Dead is an excellent answer to Artist's Talent or Monument to Endurance, allowing him to disrupt Izzet Lessons's engine while assembling his own. More broadly, strategies that can go over the top while ignoring Izzet Lessons's anti-creature interaction appear to be one of the best ways to defeat the deck.

Jeskai Control

2 Aang's Iceberg 2 Thundering Falls 3 Three Steps Ahead 3 Consult the Star Charts 4 Floodfarm Verge 2 Jeskai Revelation 3 Get Lost 1 Island 3 Day of Judgment 1 Cursed Recording 3 No More Lies 2 Marang River Regent 3 Fire Magic 4 Meticulous Archive 3 Lightning Helix 4 Sacred Foundry 3 Stock Up 3 Overlord of the Mistmoors 1 Plains 3 Riverpyre Verge 3 Spirebluff Canal 4 Sunbillow Verge 2 Negate 2 Torpor Orb 1 Cursed Recording 2 The Unagi of Kyoshi Island 3 Beza, the Bounding Spring 2 Elspeth's Smite 1 Overlord of the Mistmoors 2 Rest in Peace

Chris Botelho, who qualified at the Regional Championship in Hartford with a finely tuned Azorius Control list, brought a similarly outstanding Jeskai Control build to Magic World Championship 31. He piloted it to a 6-2 record in Standard. While most Jeskai Control lists use Shiko, Paragon of the Way as their marquee finisher, Botelho was the only Jeskai Control player in the tournament to abandon that Dragon, instead relying on Overlord of the Mistmoors and Cursed Recording.

Cursed Recording can copy Jeskai Revelation to take command of the game, and the newly printed Aang's Iceberg provides a clear fail-safe by exiling the artifact to reset its time counters when needed. These elegant synergies surely gave Botelho an edge throughout his matches.

To me, this highlights one of the clearest paths to defeating Izzet Lessons: go over the top with a powerful engine, preferably one driven by enchantments or artifacts that can outscale their synergies while sidestepping their hyper-efficient creature removal.

What's Next for Standard?

Magic World Championship 31 has firmly established Izzet Lessons as the deck to beat in Standard, though it flew under the radar before the event. Now, it has a target on its back. As we've seen throughout this article, there are multiple ways to combat the archetype: graveyard hate, artifact or enchantment removal, punishing their noncreature spells, or deploying an even more powerful engine that sidesteps their efficient creature removal.

While Superior Spider-Man or Cursed Recording can be a potential centerpiece to build around, brewers might also consider an alternative like Simulacrum Synthesizer or Insidious Roots. Mill effects such as Riverchurn Monument also appear particularly promising, punishing Izzet Lesson's heavy reliance on draw and discard.


If you want to test your mettle in competitive Standard, then the current round of RCQs uses that format and runs through March 22, 2026. You can find an RCQ near you by checking with your local game store or visiting your regional organizer's website.


If you're aiming even higher, Magic Spotlight: The Avatar will take place in Lyon, France, and Atlanta, Georgia, on January 9–11, 2026. Each marquee two-day open tournament features a $50,000 prize pool, awards exclusive promo cards, and rewards the Top 8 finishers with coveted Pro Tour invitations.

As we move forward, these events promise to provide a thrilling showcase of competitive Magic play, and I look forward to analyzing the metagame in the months to come.

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